Q1 2017 Look Ahead

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Happy New Year to all and welcome to 2017!  Not only does today mark the first trading day of a new quarter, but also the first trading day of a new year.  We would like to take this opportunity to present you with our Q1 2017 Look Ahead.

For a PDF copy, click here.

For our audio and video presentation, click here.

Below, we’ve highlighted a number of key elements from our Q1 2017 Look Ahead.

  1.  Have we reached the end of the earnings recession?
    • The Energy sector remained the leading detractor from earnings growth over the past year, but we believe it’s poised to be the leading contributor to earnings growth in 2017. [i]

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2.  How integral is the U.S. in global trade?

    • We take an in-depth look at global trade and how it affects the GDP formula. 

US Trading Partners.JPG

3.  “Trumponomics” – Will the market continue its rally or will it disappoint? [ii]

    • We look at elements of the political landscape to see if there is any reason for concern within the markets.

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4.  What are the expectations for future Fed Funds Rate increases? [iii]

    • We take a good look at the likelihood that 2017 will be a one-and-done rate rise, similar to what we saw in 2015 and 2016. 

Fed Funds Rate Increase Projections.JPG

We aren’t out of the woods yet.  With markets near all-time highs, it’s easy to become complacent and lose sight of the fact that your portfolio may be taking on too much risk relative to your targeted rate of return. 

Check out our Q1 2017 Look Ahead here, to see what areas we are focusing on and to gain insight into the strategies we are using to keep risk in line.

If you have questions or comments, please let us know as we always appreciate your feedback. You can get in touch with us via TwitterFacebook, or you can email me directly.  For additional information on this, please visit our website.

Tim Phillips, CEO – Phillips & Company

Robert Dinelli, Investment Analyst – Phillips & Company

 

References:

i.            http://phillipsandco.com/files/5014/8346/4459/2017_Q1_Look_Ahead_-_Final.pdf

ii.            https://www.blackrock.com/investing/literature/whitepaper/bii-2017-investment-outlook-us.pdf

iii.            http://phillipsandco.com/files/5614/8097/7801/MI-GTM_4Q16_December.pdf