Recent Posts

  1. April 22, 2019

        With just a few weeks’ worth of S&P 500 earnings reports released for Q1 2019, the earnings recession we have been talking about for many weeks is beginning to take shape. So far with 15 percent of companies reporting their Q1 2019 earnings, FactSet is… More >>

  2. April 15, 2019

      To celebrate Earth Day almost 40 years ago, Walt Kelly wrote, “We have met the enemy and he is us.”  The essence of his work was to remind Americans we were all responsible for hurting the environment. [i] Oddly enough, we had a similar reminder during last week’s… More >>

  3. April 8, 2019

      After completing the first full trading week of the second quarter, the market continues to rocket toward the all-time highs it reached last September.  With the market’s exuberance, we’d like to remind investors of the potential clouds headed our way, as we present… More >>

  4. April 1, 2019

        Talks of a recession seem to be on everyone’s mind following the decision by the Federal Reserve to put a hold on further interest rate hikes in 2019.  During last week’s blog post, “A Stair Case Maze of Confusion,” we discussed the inverted yield curve and its… More >>

  5. March 25, 2019

    (Earnings Recessions, Inverted Yield Curves, and Economic Recessions)   Every few years I repurpose some old themes and remind our readers that, although past performance is not always indicative of future performance, cycles do repeat themselves.  Through 2015 and much… More >>

  6. March 18, 2019

      In most developed countries, an important public utility like power or water is always available with the flip of a switch or the turn of a knob.  As consumers, we have grown so dependent on these reliable services that we hardly think about how they work.  The… More >>

  7. March 11, 2019

      The latest Employment Situations report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Friday, March 8, 2019, suggested the economy is in the midst of a massive cooling down. The United States economy added a mere 20,000 jobs versus the 181,000 that economists were… More >>

  8. March 4, 2019

      One of the most astonishing economic miracles I have seen in my 30-plus years of professional investing is the possibility of our economy receiving a second wind. That’s right! Considering the length of this economic recovery compared to past recoveries, this… More >>

  9. February 25, 2019

      Investors have been working new funds into both equities and fixed income.  Yet these two markets are forecasting widely different outcomes for the future of the U.S. economy.  Ultimately, like any clash of two titans, only one of them will win. [i]     As many… More >>

  10. February 19, 2019

      In last week’s market commentary, “Retail Therapy,” I wrote about the advanced look at retail sales numbers for December 2018.  The underlying takeaway from this post was that the advanced look could provide investors insight into whether good or bad times lie ahead.… More >>

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