Weekly Commentary

There is a quiet truth about investing that never changes: Risk is always present. It doesn’t disappear when inflation cools. It doesn’t vanish when earnings beat estimates. It doesn’t take a vacation because markets have had a strong run. It simply rotates. And if you’ve been doing this as long as I have, you learn […]

Last week’s market wobble had a familiar feel. A big headline. A sharp selloff. A collective inhale. This time, the trigger was capital expenditures. 1. Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta, Oracle—together guiding toward roughly $700 billion of U.S. hyperscaler CapEx in 2026—spooked investors who suddenly worried that spending had gotten ahead of returns. Stocks sold off. […]

Markets love a captain. With Kevin Warsh now named as the next Federal Reserve Chair — though still awaiting confirmation — investors have done what they always do when leadership changes loom: they’ve tried to price the person. The reaction has been familiar. The dollar firmed. Metals sold off. Financial conditions tightened at the margin. […]

We are currently witnessing a fascinating bit of economic gymnastics. Consumer sentiment has risen for the second month in a row, even as the personal savings rate has slipped to roughly 3.5%, a level that would normally set off alarms. At first glance, this looks like the American consumer doing what they always do at […]

It’s understandable if this week feels unsettling as an investor. Headlines are loud, geopolitical risks feel elevated, and policy uncertainty can create the sense that markets are balancing on a knife’s edge. That anxiety is real — and it deserves to be acknowledged. Headlines will swirl around geopolitics: renewed tension over Greenland, tariff rhetoric aimed […]

There are moments in economic cycles when the headlines miss the real story. This is one of them. Much of today’s debate centers on slowing job growth, softer wage momentum, and whether the economy is finally losing altitude. Those concerns aren’t wrong—but they are incomplete. Beneath the surface, productivity is accelerating, and that matters more […]

I was prepared this week to introduce my Q1 2026 Look Ahead—a forward-looking framework grounded in probabilities, earnings durability, and the idea that markets rarely move in straight lines. Then, as often happens, the world reminded us that calendars do not govern capital. Geopolitical developments often arrive wrapped in strong language and stronger reactions. For investors, […]

A Short Primer: What GDP Really Measures Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is simply the sum of everything the economy produces, but how that growth is generated matters far more than the headline number. Roughly two-thirds of U.S. GDP comes from consumption, with the remainder split among investment, government spending, and net exports. That composition is […]

Wall Street loves a neat narrative: “Inflation is solved, cue the soft landing, cut the rates.” The data is moving in the right direction. But voters don’t live inside a CPI spreadsheet—they live inside monthly payments. That’s the real tension heading into 2026: headline inflation can cool while the most visible household costs—housing, healthcare, and […]

Markets like clean narratives. The Federal Reserve cuts rates, financial conditions ease, and risk assets respond accordingly. This time, the story is messier. The Federal Reserve cut rates last week, bringing short-term interest rates to their lowest level in years. Despite meaningful cuts to short-term rates, the 10-year Treasury yield remains stubbornly high. That’s not […]