Weekly Commentary

If you’re old enough, you probably remember the lines. In the late 1970s, cars stretched around city blocks waiting for gasoline. Drivers slept in their cars overnight. I recall the fun we as kids had playing in the gas lines with perfect strangers ignorant of the macro consequences going on.  Some states rationed fuel by […]

In October of 1973, Americans lined up at gas stations across the country. It wasn’t because oil had disappeared overnight. It was because geopolitics suddenly collided with economics in a very visible way. The Yom Kippur War triggered an Arab oil embargo, and the United States — heavily reliant on Middle Eastern supply — discovered […]

Trade policy is back in the headlines. The Supreme Court has weighed in on executive tariff authority. President Trump has announced a proposal for a new 15% tariff. Average statutory tariff rates have already moved higher. The trade deficit just printed one of the largest readings since 1960. If you only read the headlines, you […]

There is a quiet truth about investing that never changes: Risk is always present. It doesn’t disappear when inflation cools. It doesn’t vanish when earnings beat estimates. It doesn’t take a vacation because markets have had a strong run. It simply rotates. And if you’ve been doing this as long as I have, you learn […]

Last week’s market wobble had a familiar feel. A big headline. A sharp selloff. A collective inhale. This time, the trigger was capital expenditures. 1. Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta, Oracle—together guiding toward roughly $700 billion of U.S. hyperscaler CapEx in 2026—spooked investors who suddenly worried that spending had gotten ahead of returns. Stocks sold off. […]

Markets love a captain. With Kevin Warsh now named as the next Federal Reserve Chair — though still awaiting confirmation — investors have done what they always do when leadership changes loom: they’ve tried to price the person. The reaction has been familiar. The dollar firmed. Metals sold off. Financial conditions tightened at the margin. […]

We are currently witnessing a fascinating bit of economic gymnastics. Consumer sentiment has risen for the second month in a row, even as the personal savings rate has slipped to roughly 3.5%, a level that would normally set off alarms. At first glance, this looks like the American consumer doing what they always do at […]

It’s understandable if this week feels unsettling as an investor. Headlines are loud, geopolitical risks feel elevated, and policy uncertainty can create the sense that markets are balancing on a knife’s edge. That anxiety is real — and it deserves to be acknowledged. Headlines will swirl around geopolitics: renewed tension over Greenland, tariff rhetoric aimed […]

There are moments in economic cycles when the headlines miss the real story. This is one of them. Much of today’s debate centers on slowing job growth, softer wage momentum, and whether the economy is finally losing altitude. Those concerns aren’t wrong—but they are incomplete. Beneath the surface, productivity is accelerating, and that matters more […]

I was prepared this week to introduce my Q1 2026 Look Ahead—a forward-looking framework grounded in probabilities, earnings durability, and the idea that markets rarely move in straight lines. Then, as often happens, the world reminded us that calendars do not govern capital. Geopolitical developments often arrive wrapped in strong language and stronger reactions. For investors, […]