Weekly Commentary

You can feel it in the data — the economy isn’t evenly expanding. The latest Federal Reserve regional surveys show that only about 20% of the U.S. population lives in areas considered “in expansion.” That’s near the lowest level outside a recession. Most of America, economically speaking, is just holding on. Is this a Patchwork […]

There’s an old saying in markets: “In the long run, stock prices follow earnings.” That’s as true today as it was a century ago — maybe even more so. After another strong start to earnings season, the data remind us that corporate America’s profit engine remains remarkably durable, and that durability explains a lot about […]

Investing isn’t just for the wealthy anymore — and that’s a good thing. For decades, ownership in America—of homes, businesses, and stocks—was concentrated in the hands of a few. But that’s changing, at least as far as stocks are concerned. The past five years have marked a quiet revolution in who owns the country’s productive […]

Earnings season was supposed to be simple: margins near record highs, analysts expecting another solid quarter, and the Federal Reserve setting the stage for an easier policy path. But just as corporate America started polishing its prepared remarks, a familiar risk re-emerged — tariffs and trade tensions with China. That unexpected headline dropped a “margin […]

Market pullbacks tend to make more noise in the headlines than in history. Since World War II, the S&P 500 has seen 48 corrections of 10% or more—but only 25% of those ever became true bear markets. That means three out of four times, investors who tuned out the noise and stayed invested came out […]

As we turn the corner into Q4, the economic data paints a story of contrasts and transitions—a “two-speed economy” where consumers continue to spend, yet job growth is faltering.  It’s a balancing act that will define the year-end and set the stage for 2026. Take a look at the wage growth vs. job growth chart. […]

Last week, the Federal Reserve delivered its long-awaited rate cut — the first in over a year. Normally, that kind of shift would send long-term yields lower. Instead, the 10-Year Treasury Yield rose. At first glance, it’s a paradox. But when you dig into the Fed’s own forecasts, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker, and the […]

When we talk about “asset holders,” it’s not just the ultra-wealthy—it’s anyone who owns assets, has liquidity, and benefits from policy tailwinds, including those that have a 401k. With a rate cut expected this week, the scorecard is about to tilt even further in their favor.  They’re not the intended target for interest rate cuts; […]

Every cycle seems to hand us a phrase that captures the tension of the moment. In the early 1990s, it was the “Jobless Recovery.” In the late 1990s, it was “Irrational Exuberance.” Today? We may be living through the “Bend but Not Break” economy. Jobs are faltering, wage growth is softening, and yet corporate earnings, […]

September has a long history of testing investors’ nerves. Going back to 1927, the first year of a presidential cycle has produced an average S&P 500 decline of -1.62% in September, with the index falling more than half the time.  On seasonals alone, this September may be no different. But seasonality doesn’t exist in a […]

For two years, the Fed has battled inflation with a restrictive stance. But Chair Powell’s recent Jackson Hole remarks mark a notable shift. He acknowledged the difficult balance of the Fed’s dual mandate, saying: “In the near term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside, and risks to employment to the downside…with policy in […]

This week we will hear the scholars and PhDs of the Federal Reserve pontificate at their annual retreat in Jackson Hole. The topic will likely center around Federal Reserve independence and the ruling elite. What I hope they talk about is who counts in a crisis. The U.S. economy looks strong at the surface level. […]

The weak jobs numbers put a shadow on what could be an economy still on decent footing.  The biggest growth is coming from the market’s leaders and the wealthiest households — and that concentration, while worth watching, may be more of a strength than a weakness right now. With strong corporate earnings, healthy balance sheets, […]

As expected, last week’s data dump told us a great deal about the Trump economy. On the one hand, the U.S. economy grew at a solid 3% pace in Q2. Most of that growth was driven by a significant adjustment to trade, which added considerable momentum. Notably, the consumer’s contribution was smaller. While overall planned […]

This week isn’t just busy—it’s defining. From the Federal Reserve’s rate decision to a crush of earnings from the most influential names in the S&P 500, markets are heading into what could be the most consequential stretch of the summer. With economic data, earnings, and policy colliding, the signals we get could set the tone […]

What productivity, inflation, and the consumer are telling investors right now. It’s easy to stay skeptical in a noisy world. But sometimes, the most bullish signals are the quietest. Zoom out, and a compelling picture emerges: recession fears are retreating, productivity is surging, inflation is stabilizing, and consumers are spending—not just surviving. Are We in […]

Just as equity markets hit all time highs after recovering from the tariff threats in April, we have tariff threats 2.0. This time it’s a 30% tariff on the European Union and Mexico, two of the countries we have large trade deficits with. Oddly enough, the U.S. has been collecting custom duties to the tune […]

We wrapped up one of the most consequential periods for U.S. equities. The S&P 500 recovered all its losses in the quarter and then some, rising 30% from the April 7th lows.1 In fact, it’s one of the most rapid recoveries since 1950, with a 1.6 month bear market, no recession, and only 2.6 months to […]