Weekly Commentary

On March 28, Egypt announced something that would have sounded strange a few years ago but feels perfectly rational in an energy squeeze1. The government said it would slow some fuel-intensive state projects for at least two months, cut fuel allocations for government vehicles by 30%, and move both public- and private-sector employees to remote […]

Over the past few weeks, it’s been hard to have a conversation with clients without oil coming up. It’s visible, and it moves quickly. And when it does, people feel it almost immediately — at the pump, in the headlines, and in the general tone of the market. But one of the challenges in moments […]

In the summer of 1987, the U.S. Navy launched Operation Earnest Will, escorting oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz during the Iran-Iraq War. At the time the global economy depended on that narrow passage more than most people realized. Roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply flowed through the strait each day. Tankers were […]

If you’re old enough, you probably remember the lines. In the late 1970s, cars stretched around city blocks waiting for gasoline. Drivers slept in their cars overnight. I recall the fun we as kids had playing in the gas lines with perfect strangers ignorant of the macro consequences going on.  Some states rationed fuel by […]

In October of 1973, Americans lined up at gas stations across the country. It wasn’t because oil had disappeared overnight. It was because geopolitics suddenly collided with economics in a very visible way. The Yom Kippur War triggered an Arab oil embargo, and the United States — heavily reliant on Middle Eastern supply — discovered […]

Trade policy is back in the headlines. The Supreme Court has weighed in on executive tariff authority. President Trump has announced a proposal for a new 15% tariff. Average statutory tariff rates have already moved higher. The trade deficit just printed one of the largest readings since 1960. If you only read the headlines, you […]

There is a quiet truth about investing that never changes: Risk is always present. It doesn’t disappear when inflation cools. It doesn’t vanish when earnings beat estimates. It doesn’t take a vacation because markets have had a strong run. It simply rotates. And if you’ve been doing this as long as I have, you learn […]

Last week’s market wobble had a familiar feel. A big headline. A sharp selloff. A collective inhale. This time, the trigger was capital expenditures. 1. Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta, Oracle—together guiding toward roughly $700 billion of U.S. hyperscaler CapEx in 2026—spooked investors who suddenly worried that spending had gotten ahead of returns. Stocks sold off. […]

Markets love a captain. With Kevin Warsh now named as the next Federal Reserve Chair — though still awaiting confirmation — investors have done what they always do when leadership changes loom: they’ve tried to price the person. The reaction has been familiar. The dollar firmed. Metals sold off. Financial conditions tightened at the margin. […]

We are currently witnessing a fascinating bit of economic gymnastics. Consumer sentiment has risen for the second month in a row, even as the personal savings rate has slipped to roughly 3.5%, a level that would normally set off alarms. At first glance, this looks like the American consumer doing what they always do at […]