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Our Blog: The Last Four...

[Blog Archive]
  1. May 12, 2025

    China will Need to be China (mostly)

    We finally had our first tariff off-ramp. Last week, the Trump administration announced a trade deal with the United Kingdom. It reflected deep economic alignment, strategic trust, and a shared framework of market capitalism. It was also because the trade difference… More >>

  2. May 5, 2025

    Are We Really Back to Even?

    Over the last nine consecutive days, the S&P 500 has recovered all its losses since the April 2nd launch of the Trump trade war. This is the longest S&P 500 winning streak in the last 20 years.1 The historic rally occurred even considering a mix of economic… More >>

  3. April 28, 2025

    Too Early to Call a Recession

    The recent drumbeat for a US recession is mounting and will dominate the news cycle this week. With US economic growth (GDP) releasing on Wednesday, economists will likely increase their probabilities for a recession. According to Bloomberg, forecasters now see a 45%… More >>

  4. April 21, 2025

    A Chance at a Soft Landing

    The US Consumer once again contradicted their self-reported dour mood and continued to spend in March. Retail sales were up 4.6% year over year. Some of this was a pull forward in consumption driven by the tariffs on autos, although almost every segment saw increases in… More >>

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