Weekly Commentary

There are moments in economic cycles when the headlines miss the real story. This is one of them. Much of today’s debate centers on slowing job growth, softer wage momentum, and whether the economy is finally losing altitude. Those concerns aren’t wrong—but they are incomplete. Beneath the surface, productivity is accelerating, and that matters more […]

I was prepared this week to introduce my Q1 2026 Look Ahead—a forward-looking framework grounded in probabilities, earnings durability, and the idea that markets rarely move in straight lines. Then, as often happens, the world reminded us that calendars do not govern capital. Geopolitical developments often arrive wrapped in strong language and stronger reactions. For investors, […]

A Short Primer: What GDP Really Measures Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is simply the sum of everything the economy produces, but how that growth is generated matters far more than the headline number. Roughly two-thirds of U.S. GDP comes from consumption, with the remainder split among investment, government spending, and net exports. That composition is […]

Wall Street loves a neat narrative: “Inflation is solved, cue the soft landing, cut the rates.” The data is moving in the right direction. But voters don’t live inside a CPI spreadsheet—they live inside monthly payments. That’s the real tension heading into 2026: headline inflation can cool while the most visible household costs—housing, healthcare, and […]

Markets like clean narratives. The Federal Reserve cuts rates, financial conditions ease, and risk assets respond accordingly. This time, the story is messier. The Federal Reserve cut rates last week, bringing short-term interest rates to their lowest level in years. Despite meaningful cuts to short-term rates, the 10-year Treasury yield remains stubbornly high. That’s not […]

Every December, Wall Street unveils a fresh batch of S&P 500 forecasts—beautifully formatted, precisely modeled, and delivered with the confidence of someone reading tomorrow’s weather from a script. The only issue? They’re almost always wrong. Not because analysts lack intelligence, but because markets are complex and adaptive systems that don’t bend to linear predictions. Yet […]

If you want to understand the American economy, you don’t need a macro textbook — just a holiday shopping receipt. Consumption isn’t part of GDP: it is the economy. Roughly 70% of U.S. GDP is driven by consumer spending. And during the holidays, that engine revs at full throttle. That chart tells the story plainly: […]

The Tale of Two Bubbles in America’s Economy We’re living through one of the most talked-about investment booms of our lifetime.  Everywhere you turn, investors, companies, and commentators are fixated on the same thing: AI, data centers, and the cap-ex wave powering it all. It’s the rare moment when Wall Street, corporate America, and the […]

If you’ve been anywhere near financial media lately, you’ve heard the phrase “K-shaped economy.” It’s the idea that the economic experience is splitting into two diverging paths—those doing quite well (the upper arm of the K) and those struggling under persistent price pressures and higher borrowing costs (the lower arm).  There’s truth to that narrative. But like most stories that travel […]

After a stretch of record highs, the market finally caught its breath last week. The NASDAQ is down about 4% from its peak — a move that feels dramatic in the moment but is, in reality, entirely normal. Pullbacks Happen — Often If history is any guide, declines like these are not the exception but […]