Weekly Commentary

  While you were busy running your company, doing your job or perhaps enjoying some rest and relaxation, central banks around the globe were hard at work. It should be obvious to our readers we have long believed Central Banks would do anything to prevent their respective countries from slipping into any deflationary spiral. Just […]

  We have now entered the third quarter 2015 earnings reporting period. While speculation creates short term excitement, earnings generally drive long-term results. [i] It’s clear to me, speculation is driving the current recovery in the market. These last three weeks we have seen the S&P 500 rally 3.35%. [ii] Much of this, in my […]

  Our series of Look Ahead’s continues with our views on what’s in store for the markets and economy in Q4 2015. For audio and video click here: Q4 2015 Look Ahead For the pdf version click here: Q4 2015 Look Ahead We explore the significant differences between an earnings recession, which we believe we […]

  If two back-to-back quarters of negative GDP growth is the definition of an economic recession, then two quarters in a row of earnings declines would have to qualify as an earnings recession. Driving the “earnings recession” is a combination of poor global growth, weakness in oil, and the strong dollar as well as tough […]

  With just a few days left in calendar Q3, it’s probably time we set the stage for the upcoming earnings season. Similar to last quarter, earnings and revenue growth are expected to be negative. Earnings are expected to decline by -4.5% and revenue is expected to decline by -3.3%. If in fact earnings come […]

The Fed punted on its duty to normalize rates last week, consistent with investor’s expectations. Unfortunately, in their statement,they added another layer of complexity to their already challenging mandate. Prior to their announcement on Thursday, the Fed had a “dual mandate” of price stability and full employment. Basically, manage inflation while promoting the highest level […]

    This Thursday the Fed will either raise interest rates by 25bps (maybe more) or they will push out the inevitable until later this year. Markets will react, one way or another. Currently, more investors expect a rise in interest rates to be delayed instead of hiking later this week. The current Federal Funds […]

  By now you might be developing some investor fatigue as market volatility adds more difficulty to the already complex art of investing. After all, we have experienced 16 days of triple digit moves in the last 30 trading days. [I] Perhaps, you might be thinking, “When will this ever end”? Or, “How much more […]

  A plethora of economic data was released last week that helped to provide a recovery rally in U.S. equity markets. First, U.S. GDP for Q2 was revised much higher than estimated on the first report. U.S. GDP grew by 3.7% up from Q1 growth of .6% and Q2 first estimate of 2.3%. [I] Growth […]

It should come as little surprise to those that read our posts that we have had a full correction in U.S. Equities (defined as a 10% drop). After all, it’s been over 1,420 days since we have had a correction of this magnitude. In fact, when you look at the frequency of corrections this length […]