Weekly Commentary

  Here is what we can put in the books at this point in the year. 1) Third Quarter earnings per share continue their shrinking trend, putting us in an earnings recession for the first time since 2009. With only 19 companies left to report for the S&P 500, it’s likely we will end the […]

  The events in France on Friday have reminded the world we are in dangerous and unpredictable times. Americans need little reminder, as the horror of the 9-11 attacks are etched into our collective memories. France will now likely follow in the footsteps of America as they adopt a war footing. French President Hollande has […]

  If there ever was a confirming indicator for the Fed to start raising rates in December, the Jobs Report released this past Friday was it. [i] After many months of a declining trend in labor, October was a breakout month for the US labor force. The US economy added 271,000 jobs in the month […]

  The economy slowed in Q3 from its growth trajectory in Q2. Overall U.S. GDP only grew at a 1.49% pace down from 3.92% growth in Q2. The good news is the consumer continued to show very strong performance. [i] Consumption, which makes up about 70% of the US economy expanded by 2.19%. Much of […]

  While you were busy running your company, doing your job or perhaps enjoying some rest and relaxation, central banks around the globe were hard at work. It should be obvious to our readers we have long believed Central Banks would do anything to prevent their respective countries from slipping into any deflationary spiral. Just […]

  We have now entered the third quarter 2015 earnings reporting period. While speculation creates short term excitement, earnings generally drive long-term results. [i] It’s clear to me, speculation is driving the current recovery in the market. These last three weeks we have seen the S&P 500 rally 3.35%. [ii] Much of this, in my […]

  Our series of Look Ahead’s continues with our views on what’s in store for the markets and economy in Q4 2015. For audio and video click here: Q4 2015 Look Ahead For the pdf version click here: Q4 2015 Look Ahead We explore the significant differences between an earnings recession, which we believe we […]

  If two back-to-back quarters of negative GDP growth is the definition of an economic recession, then two quarters in a row of earnings declines would have to qualify as an earnings recession. Driving the “earnings recession” is a combination of poor global growth, weakness in oil, and the strong dollar as well as tough […]

  With just a few days left in calendar Q3, it’s probably time we set the stage for the upcoming earnings season. Similar to last quarter, earnings and revenue growth are expected to be negative. Earnings are expected to decline by -4.5% and revenue is expected to decline by -3.3%. If in fact earnings come […]

The Fed punted on its duty to normalize rates last week, consistent with investor’s expectations. Unfortunately, in their statement,they added another layer of complexity to their already challenging mandate. Prior to their announcement on Thursday, the Fed had a “dual mandate” of price stability and full employment. Basically, manage inflation while promoting the highest level […]