Weekly Commentary

Last week, I wrote (Can Fear Fuel The Next Rally?) that the tone of the news had become so negative that it was beginning to create the conditions for a rally, rather than setting up another leg down. That is often how markets work. They bottom or rebound not when the headlines improve—although they sometimes […]

When fear shows up, it rarely knocks politely. It barges in through the headlines, raises its voice, and tells us that whatever is happening right now will probably get worse before it gets better. That is where we are again. The failed Iran peace talks, blockades, and threats of more military conflict have put oil […]

This week, let’s start with this chart. It might help describe what I believe is a shift in employment vs. an overall weakness in jobs. When you step back and watch employment over time, the labor market rarely breaks in a straight line. It shifts. Different parts of the economy take turns doing the heavy […]

On March 28, Egypt announced something that would have sounded strange a few years ago but feels perfectly rational in an energy squeeze1. The government said it would slow some fuel-intensive state projects for at least two months, cut fuel allocations for government vehicles by 30%, and move both public- and private-sector employees to remote […]

Over the past few weeks, it’s been hard to have a conversation with clients without oil coming up. It’s visible, and it moves quickly. And when it does, people feel it almost immediately — at the pump, in the headlines, and in the general tone of the market. But one of the challenges in moments […]

In the summer of 1987, the U.S. Navy launched Operation Earnest Will, escorting oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz during the Iran-Iraq War. At the time the global economy depended on that narrow passage more than most people realized. Roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply flowed through the strait each day. Tankers were […]

If you’re old enough, you probably remember the lines. In the late 1970s, cars stretched around city blocks waiting for gasoline. Drivers slept in their cars overnight. I recall the fun we as kids had playing in the gas lines with perfect strangers ignorant of the macro consequences going on.  Some states rationed fuel by […]

In October of 1973, Americans lined up at gas stations across the country. It wasn’t because oil had disappeared overnight. It was because geopolitics suddenly collided with economics in a very visible way. The Yom Kippur War triggered an Arab oil embargo, and the United States — heavily reliant on Middle Eastern supply — discovered […]

Trade policy is back in the headlines. The Supreme Court has weighed in on executive tariff authority. President Trump has announced a proposal for a new 15% tariff. Average statutory tariff rates have already moved higher. The trade deficit just printed one of the largest readings since 1960. If you only read the headlines, you […]

There is a quiet truth about investing that never changes: Risk is always present. It doesn’t disappear when inflation cools. It doesn’t vanish when earnings beat estimates. It doesn’t take a vacation because markets have had a strong run. It simply rotates. And if you’ve been doing this as long as I have, you learn […]