Weekly Commentary

  It seems that no matter what is going on in the world, the stock market has had little reaction and continues to reach new highs. The Federal Reserve recently expressed its concern that investor complacency could “sow the seeds for disruptive market moves that could undermine the economy.”[i] Low volatility may encourage investors to […]

  Not too many weeks ago the world, and especially Europe, was faced with an energy crisis from Russia and its geopolitical adventures with Ukraine. Russia is responsible for about one fourth of Europe’s energy needs.[i] With the European Union being the largest combined economy in the world, that’s no small matter for anyone. Today […]

  We all look forward to retiring with sufficient funds to enjoy the latter part of our lives, but data from retirement surveys indicate that many Americans may not achieve this goal. The statistics are frightening: 46% of Americans have less than $10,000 saved for retirement. [i] 36% of Americans say that they don’t contribute […]

  The answer: Most of Wall Street, including to some degree us, when it comes to the short-term direction of interest rates. While we knew rates would be persistently low for some period of time, we expected a small rise in rates at the beginning of the year. See our posting on Too Soon to […]

  Jobs continue to dominate the headlines since Janet Yellen took control of the Federal Reserve. She has a legitimate dual mandate to improve the jobs picture by fostering “full-employment”, estimated as longer-term unemployment in the range of 5.2% to 6.0%, and maintaining inflation at 2%.[i] With most state political primary elections now in the […]

In The Wizard of Oz, the Cowardly Lion needed courage to overcome his fears and build some confidence. Based on recent data, the players in the housing market may be in need of some courage, as there appears to be plenty of signs of doubt with respect to the economic recovery, leading Goldman Sachs to […]

These last few weeks have seen a quieter equity market with lower volumes and volatility moderating from some recent spikes.[i],[ii] As earnings season winds down, we have seen better than expected revenue numbers from Corporate America. As observed in the chart below, 57% of Russell 1000 companies that have reported so far have beaten sales […]

  It appears the economy might be coming off the life support provided to us by the Federal Reserve. Since 2009, the Fed has expanded their balance sheet by about $2 trillion to get to where we are today. Source: Federal Reserve. In its April meeting, the Fed continued to trim their purchases of Treasuries […]

  In the Phillips & Company 2014 Q2 Look Ahead, I noted that while year-over-year earnings per share (EPS) growth was strong in 2013 Q4, most of it came from margin expansion as opposed to revenue growth.[i] Companies grew profits mainly by controlling expenses. While efficient operations are important, cost controls can only go so […]

  Another tax season is over, making this an excellent time to examine the size of the tax bite that you sustained and to consider strategies to reduce your taxes for coming year. The 2013 tax year included two changes that may have increased your taxes: a 39.6% marginal tax rate for those with adjusted […]