Weekly Commentary

  We have had some pretty strong confirming data the economy has been on a firmer path to recovery in Q2 of this year after a disastrous fall in Q1. Q2 GDP was confirmed to grow at an annual rate of 4.2% as reported by the US Department of Commerce.[i] Looking back is at times […]

  I recently spent 8 days in the middle of Wyoming seeing some amazing country and fishing on some spectacular streams that meander through some of the largest ranch property in America. In those 8 days, I didn’t see another angler. However, I know there are more people fishing in Wyoming than me. In fact, […]

  In a recent blog, we noted that the stock market is near all-time highs with valuations at long-term historic levels, so earnings must deliver. We followed up with a mid-earnings-season data review that observed signs of economic strength, including 4% Q2 GDP growth, but left us with questions about consumer spending going forward and […]

  Earlier this summer, we celebrated Independence Day, commemorating both the adoption of the Declaration of Independence and the revolution that led to America achieving its independence. Today, there is another revolution going on in this country, one that could lead to independence of another kind. It centers on energy, specifically the shale deposits located […]

  One of Leonardo da Vinci’s mottoes was “saper vedere”, which translates to “knowing how to see.” It refers to the continual refinement of our senses, especially sight, as a means to enrich experience and test knowledge. With the mountain of economic data released in the last week (see the table below), this is a […]

  As many of our regular readers and clients know, Phillips and Company publishes a Quarterly Look Ahead. Here is a link to the 2014 Q3 presentation with an audio narrative. We attempt to give a look at the most pressing issues that will impact portfolio values in the coming quarter. In one of this […]

  This week I had the pleasure of spending a few private and public moments with our former US Secretary of the Treasury, Hank Paulson. While any private comments will remain just that, some of his public comments were very appropriate for the times we are in. I thought I would share them with the […]

  Coming off of a spectacular jobs report in the previous week, we should be seeing some pretty strong numbers from the US retail sector. It’s pretty easy to argue more people working would support more people spending. After all, 70% of the economy is driven by consumption.[i] Shockingly, early data from numerous retailers suggests […]

  Entering the Independence Day holiday, we had some pretty good economic news to celebrate. The jobs report from the Department of Labor came out on Thursday and crushed economists’ expectations. The report said the US economy added 288,000 jobs in the month of June and the unemployment rate plummeted to 6.1%, its lowest level […]

  The global equity markets continue to march forward in-spite of valuations.[i] The cyclically adjusted P/E (CAPE) ratio for the S&P 500, a 10-year average earnings compared to current price, is at historic levels only seen a few times in the last 100 years. Robert Shiller, the creator of this metric, suggests stocks may be […]