Weekly Commentary

  It’s the holidays and there is no better time to relax with family and friends. We have had an amazing year in the US equity markets. Source: Bloomberg The economy looks like it certainly reached “escape velocity” from the latest Q3 GDP revisions. GDP was up 4.1%. [i] Consumption even ticked up a touch […]

  The week before Christmas will certainly be anything but quiet for global equity markets. With the recent strong jobs report, stronger than anticipated Q3 GDP, and consumer confidence improving, some market prognosticators are now suggesting the Fed might begin to cut back on their bond purchases as early as this week. [i] While I […]

  Something happened last week in capital markets that might suggest a significant shift with investors thinking. The market sold off despite some very strong economic news all week—until Friday. Consumer credit expanded by 18.2 billion in October, which was the largest increase in 5 months. Revolving credit expanded by 4.3 billion, which was the […]

  At this stage of a bull market cycle we start to see investor behavior trump reason and logic. One of the most common behaviors/mistakes investors make is to chase valuations. They start to buy when in fact they should err on the side of caution. As I wrote last week, market cycles where price/earnings […]

  This week marked another week in which the major market indexes hit all-time highs. It’s clear that investors are feeling very good and continue to pour more money into equities. Since the start of October, investors have added $34.2 billion into equity funds, and have withdrawn $26.9 billion from bond funds, according to Investment […]

With so much discussion, debate and concern being expressed by the rollout of the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare, I think it’s critical to look at the program and its economic impact in the simplest terms. Here’s Obamacare made easy: It provides a basic set of coverage that must be included in all […]

  The US economy had some reasonably good news last week. US GDP was up 2.85% in the 3rd quarter. It’s the fourth consecutive quarter of growth. [i] Further, the monthly employment situation took a surprising turn for the better. The US economy added over 204,000 jobs in October. The private sector added 212,000 jobs […]

  Defying Gravity The S&P 500 rallied 4.59% over the last month.This rally continues to mystify conventional thinking— that is, for those that believe market reactions should be conventional. [i] Conventional thinking goes something like this: Earnings continue to come in at weaker levels than expected by Wall Street analysts, and revenue expectations continue to […]

  The unemployment figures came out last week and they were certainly less than anticipated—an increase of 148,000 in nonfarm payrolls in September compared to the expectation of 185,000. [i] This is troubling and reflects a continuing deterioration of job growth. Take a look at the table below. You can see the rolling 3-month average […]

  Multiple Expansion?Weekly Market Commentary 10-21-2013Tim Phillips, CEO—Phillips & Company As markets return to “normal” and participants attempt to discount and anticipate future events, it’s worth taking a look at what fundamentally drives value. Earnings growth is the one undisputed value driver for companies. So far earnings are coming in weaker than anticipated. While it […]