Weekly Commentary

Weekly Market Commentary 6-6-11 Tim Phillips, CEO – Phillips and Co. The Probability of Being When it comes to investing it’s about trying to predict future outcomes. These predictions about future outcomes have a range of probabilities and likelihoods of happening. Last week’s avalanche of gloomy economic data, believe it or not, helped me clarify […]

Sector Rotation Tim Phillips, CEO – Phillips and Company   “An elegant solution for keeping track of reality” – Inception Right now, there seems to be a healthy debate over GDP growth for the US. Q1 real GDP growth remained unrevised at 1.8% compared to a forecasted upward revision to 2.1%. Other economic data was […]

Weekly Market Commentary 5-23-11 Inflationary head fake? Tim Phillips, CEO – Phillips and Company   Recently when I’ve been out learning how to see, there has been a lot of discussion on rapid inflation in the near future. Frankly, I agree with their concerns. However, the bond market doesn’t seem to agree. Bond prices continue […]

  Learning How to See Part II Tim Phillips – CEO, Phillips and Company Weekly Market Commentary 5-16-11   While many professionals in my industry spend hours analyzing data points looking for trends and searching online for industry reports, I prefer an additional tool: hitting the road and meeting with investment decision makers.   I […]

  Learning How to See – Part I Tim Phillips – CEO, Phillips and Company Last quarter we mentioned that 67.4% of companies beat earnings estimates. We also pointed out that the historical beat rate is 63%. As of this morning, over 80% of the S&P 500 companies have posted earnings for the first quarter […]

The Prediction Business Tim Phillips – CEO, Phillips & Company Weekly Market Commentary 5-2-11 The week was interesting enough for capital markets. In spite of all the concerning headlines (gas prices, debt ceilings, birth certificates, Fed press conferences) the equity markets trudged higher. I suspect it was mostly driven by higher than expected earnings reports. […]

Higher Gas Prices-Who’s the loser? Tim Phillips – CEO, Phillips & Company A few weeks ago we mentioned how we had already seen some GDP forecasts revised down to 2.97% from highs in February of 3.20% Either all of these guys aren’t very good at accurately forecasting the size of the world’s largest economy 12 […]

Painful Start or Painful Taxes Tim Phillips, CEO – Phillips and Company Last quarter, when we were in the thick of earnings season we noted how well the numbers were looking at the top line and bottom line. When all was said and done, Bloomberg’s numbers showed that 72% of the S&P 500 beat earnings […]

Political Drama – Enter Stage Left & Right Tim Phillips, CEO – Phillips and Company In, The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, John Maynard Keynes laid out six objective factors that influence the propensity to consume. I would like to take a moment to focus on two of them that are pretty straight […]

Jobs – Now What? According to the BLS data for March employment increased by 216,000 and the unemployment rate dropped to a 2 year low of 8.8%. They also revised up the January and February employment numbers. So for the first three months of the year the economy has added 188,000 private payroll jobs per […]