Weekly Commentary

The Tale of Two Bubbles in America’s Economy We’re living through one of the most talked-about investment booms of our lifetime.  Everywhere you turn, investors, companies, and commentators are fixated on the same thing: AI, data centers, and the cap-ex wave powering it all. It’s the rare moment when Wall Street, corporate America, and the […]

If you’ve been anywhere near financial media lately, you’ve heard the phrase “K-shaped economy.” It’s the idea that the economic experience is splitting into two diverging paths—those doing quite well (the upper arm of the K) and those struggling under persistent price pressures and higher borrowing costs (the lower arm).  There’s truth to that narrative. But like most stories that travel […]

After a stretch of record highs, the market finally caught its breath last week. The NASDAQ is down about 4% from its peak — a move that feels dramatic in the moment but is, in reality, entirely normal. Pullbacks Happen — Often If history is any guide, declines like these are not the exception but […]

You can feel it in the data — the economy isn’t evenly expanding. The latest Federal Reserve regional surveys show that only about 20% of the U.S. population lives in areas considered “in expansion.” That’s near the lowest level outside a recession. Most of America, economically speaking, is just holding on. Is this a Patchwork […]

There’s an old saying in markets: “In the long run, stock prices follow earnings.” That’s as true today as it was a century ago — maybe even more so. After another strong start to earnings season, the data remind us that corporate America’s profit engine remains remarkably durable, and that durability explains a lot about […]

Investing isn’t just for the wealthy anymore — and that’s a good thing. For decades, ownership in America—of homes, businesses, and stocks—was concentrated in the hands of a few. But that’s changing, at least as far as stocks are concerned. The past five years have marked a quiet revolution in who owns the country’s productive […]

Earnings season was supposed to be simple: margins near record highs, analysts expecting another solid quarter, and the Federal Reserve setting the stage for an easier policy path. But just as corporate America started polishing its prepared remarks, a familiar risk re-emerged — tariffs and trade tensions with China. That unexpected headline dropped a “margin […]

Market pullbacks tend to make more noise in the headlines than in history. Since World War II, the S&P 500 has seen 48 corrections of 10% or more—but only 25% of those ever became true bear markets. That means three out of four times, investors who tuned out the noise and stayed invested came out […]

As we turn the corner into Q4, the economic data paints a story of contrasts and transitions—a “two-speed economy” where consumers continue to spend, yet job growth is faltering.  It’s a balancing act that will define the year-end and set the stage for 2026. Take a look at the wage growth vs. job growth chart. […]

Last week, the Federal Reserve delivered its long-awaited rate cut — the first in over a year. Normally, that kind of shift would send long-term yields lower. Instead, the 10-Year Treasury Yield rose. At first glance, it’s a paradox. But when you dig into the Fed’s own forecasts, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker, and the […]