Weekly Commentary

As we turn the corner into Q4, the economic data paints a story of contrasts and transitions—a “two-speed economy” where consumers continue to spend, yet job growth is faltering.  It’s a balancing act that will define the year-end and set the stage for 2026. Take a look at the wage growth vs. job growth chart. […]

Last week, the Federal Reserve delivered its long-awaited rate cut — the first in over a year. Normally, that kind of shift would send long-term yields lower. Instead, the 10-Year Treasury Yield rose. At first glance, it’s a paradox. But when you dig into the Fed’s own forecasts, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker, and the […]

When we talk about “asset holders,” it’s not just the ultra-wealthy—it’s anyone who owns assets, has liquidity, and benefits from policy tailwinds, including those that have a 401k. With a rate cut expected this week, the scorecard is about to tilt even further in their favor.  They’re not the intended target for interest rate cuts; […]

Every cycle seems to hand us a phrase that captures the tension of the moment. In the early 1990s, it was the “Jobless Recovery.” In the late 1990s, it was “Irrational Exuberance.” Today? We may be living through the “Bend but Not Break” economy. Jobs are faltering, wage growth is softening, and yet corporate earnings, […]

September has a long history of testing investors’ nerves. Going back to 1927, the first year of a presidential cycle has produced an average S&P 500 decline of -1.62% in September, with the index falling more than half the time.  On seasonals alone, this September may be no different. But seasonality doesn’t exist in a […]

For two years, the Fed has battled inflation with a restrictive stance. But Chair Powell’s recent Jackson Hole remarks mark a notable shift. He acknowledged the difficult balance of the Fed’s dual mandate, saying: “In the near term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside, and risks to employment to the downside…with policy in […]

This week we will hear the scholars and PhDs of the Federal Reserve pontificate at their annual retreat in Jackson Hole. The topic will likely center around Federal Reserve independence and the ruling elite. What I hope they talk about is who counts in a crisis. The U.S. economy looks strong at the surface level. […]

The weak jobs numbers put a shadow on what could be an economy still on decent footing.  The biggest growth is coming from the market’s leaders and the wealthiest households — and that concentration, while worth watching, may be more of a strength than a weakness right now. With strong corporate earnings, healthy balance sheets, […]

As expected, last week’s data dump told us a great deal about the Trump economy. On the one hand, the U.S. economy grew at a solid 3% pace in Q2. Most of that growth was driven by a significant adjustment to trade, which added considerable momentum. Notably, the consumer’s contribution was smaller. While overall planned […]

This week isn’t just busy—it’s defining. From the Federal Reserve’s rate decision to a crush of earnings from the most influential names in the S&P 500, markets are heading into what could be the most consequential stretch of the summer. With economic data, earnings, and policy colliding, the signals we get could set the tone […]