Weekly Commentary

What productivity, inflation, and the consumer are telling investors right now. It’s easy to stay skeptical in a noisy world. But sometimes, the most bullish signals are the quietest. Zoom out, and a compelling picture emerges: recession fears are retreating, productivity is surging, inflation is stabilizing, and consumers are spending—not just surviving. Are We in […]

Just as equity markets hit all time highs after recovering from the tariff threats in April, we have tariff threats 2.0. This time it’s a 30% tariff on the European Union and Mexico, two of the countries we have large trade deficits with. Oddly enough, the U.S. has been collecting custom duties to the tune […]

We wrapped up one of the most consequential periods for U.S. equities. The S&P 500 recovered all its losses in the quarter and then some, rising 30% from the April 7th lows.1 In fact, it’s one of the most rapid recoveries since 1950, with a 1.6 month bear market, no recession, and only 2.6 months to […]

The S&P 500 hit an all-time high coming off a near bear market drawdown of 18.9% just a few months ago. In fact, it happened in record time.1 Now you might be thinking, “is the other shoe about to drop?”  Well, historically these rapid recoveries have some legs to them. According to our friends at […]

Geopolitical events took a turn for the worse over the weekend with the US bombing of Iran nuclear enrichment facilities. It’s hard to say what the ramifications and consequences of another Middle East conflict will be for the United States. Equity markets will adversely react to any signs this conflict will be prolonged and/or destabilizing […]

The recent conflict in the Middle East between Israel and Iran has been on the radar for a long time but until now was always a low probability event. No longer. The missile strikes bring a host of new geopolitical risks beyond tariffs.1  Israel struck key Iranian infrastructure that will certainly damage the country’s energy […]

Higher Tariffs, More Jobs, Lower Prices! The recent jobs report reflects continuing strength in the overall economy.  The US added 139,000 jobs in May. While cooling is still relatively strong, with a 6-month average of 157,000 jobs that’s more than enough to absorb new entrants to the jobs market.  There is still no sign of […]

For weeks, we’ve heard whispers of a slowing economy, and rightly so. But when we dig into the latest economic reports, a more nuanced picture emerges for the American consumer: one of caution, yes, but certainly not collapse. In fact, it’s a story underpinned by continued wage growth and, more importantly, a significant rise in […]

Bond yields are once again on the rise—a trend that spells trouble for the U.S. consumer. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield recently climbed to 4.51%, pushing 30-year mortgage rates back above 7%. This upward movement in rates is particularly damaging for the housing market, where affordability is already stretched.1 Bond Investors appear to be reacting […]

We are only about 3% below the all-time highs on the S&P 500. Who could have imagined we would be back at these levels so quickly with all that is going on?1 You and I did! That’s right, the average investor held their resolve and stayed invested while the so-called Wall Street “experts” or institutional […]