Weekly Commentary

At this stage of the economic cycle, all eyes are on the negatives. Rightfully so, as the headlines are filled with nothing but bad news.   The January inflation print, reported last Thursday, came in at a record setting 7.5% measured against a year ago. 1       Again – and I know I […]

The January jobs report was surprisingly strong, with the economy adding 467,000 jobs during the month. This was well ahead of the 125,000 consensus estimate compiled by Bloomberg and was accompanied by large upward revisions to the jobs data for December and November. 12       Simultaneously, the United States had over 20 million […]

The U.S. economy painted an incredible growth picture in the fourth quarter of 2021, with GDP growing at a whopping 6.9%. 1 The headline is amazing but, it is what’s behind the headline that really matters. Of the 6.9% GDP growth, 4.9 % of that growth was driven by a massive rebuild in inventories. 1 […]

It was a great football weekend. Between the commercials and shots of players roaming around the sidelines, there was a small dose of exciting football. The football is so exciting, it likely distracts from what we really spend most of our time watching. In a recent study, a typical 3-hour game only offered about 11 […]

The recent print on U.S. inflation, as expected, was a record setting 7.0% year-over-year at the headline level. 1 I’ve been a broken record in repeating the fact that inflation is measured on a monthly rate of change basis compared to this time last year. While prices may not drop, the rate of change will […]

It’s difficult to imagine risk these days when it comes to equity investing. Unlike an extreme skier or free solo climber, when an investor looks down, they can hardly see any exposure. The last twelve months have been an epic time for U.S. equities. 1 Over the last three years, cumulative returns have been even […]

We just published our Q1 2022 Look Ahead, you can view the presentation here or watch our narrated version here. We look at this year as the “thin green line”, with a lot of threads that will make up the difference between success and failure in equity markets throughout the world. Consumer StrengthWhen we think […]

As an investor in China and specifically their domestic “China A” stock market; I find myself often explaining China to many clients, friends, and family. While surrounded by family and friends this Christmas holiday, China was on the minds of many. With anti-China rhetoric at epic levels in the United States, a simple explanation can […]

The last few weeks of each quarter typically pose some unusual market behavior. More volatile, erratic, and even negative performance is not atypical. 1 It is my view that the lack of concrete earnings news drives investors to latch onto the news du jour to make investment decisions. Can you imagine trying to make critical […]

As the Christmas holiday fast approaches, Wall Street gears up for their annual tradition of predicting how markets will do in the coming year. The tradition is rooted in two very important investor behaviors: Investors love predictions and historically they forget inaccuracies. Last year, the major Wall Street firms published their prognostications for 2021. In […]