Weekly Commentary

It’s going to be a heavy week of American politics that will certainly have some impact on our equity markets. We previewed some of that volatility last week when U.S. equities sold off dramatically only to rally back. [i] Some of that sell off early in the week was caused by one of China’s largest […]

Upcoming legislative chaos will put the Fed in a pretty tight box when it comes to tapering bond purchases—despite great retail sales numbers in August and improving consumer sentiment according to the University of Michigan survey. [i] [ii] The House Ways and Means Committee passed sweeping tax reform last week along with twelve other House […]

U.S. GDP is on a trajectory that suggests Q3 growth will come in significantly lower rate than when we started the quarter. Going from an expected 6.1% growth rate to 3.7% is a 40% reduction—which is no small matter. [i] The component parts of GDP have been weakening throughout the quarter and much of that […]

The August jobs report was an unmitigated disappointment relative to expectations. The U.S. economy added 235k jobs in August—well below the consensus estimate of 733k jobs. It’s also the lowest number of jobs being added in a month since January when the U.S economy added just 233k jobs. [i] When you peel back a layer, […]

    Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, and Ambiguous seem to be the essence of our current times. Our last blog suggested President Biden’s $3.5 trillion domestic agenda could be in jeopardy if volatility in Afghanistan persisted. After the tragic deaths of 13 brave young American military personnel and scores of Afghans, it is anyone’s guess what’s […]

We had a tough week in America and it’s critical we take a look at as much of it as possible. On the economic front, we are now seeing some headline erosion in growth. On a headline basis, July retail sales declined 1.1% month-over-month. [i] Beyond the headline numbers, much of the decline was driven […]

When it comes to investments, most everything is expensive these days. You name the asset class, and it’s likely trading at or near an all-time high: • U.S. Equities• Home prices• Commodities• U.S. Treasuries With valuations at extreme highs, forward-looking returns look gloomy. Famed investment house GMO, exemplifies this point in their forward-looking real return […]

The July jobs report came out on Friday and showed the U.S. economy added 943,000 jobs during the month. In total, the economy has added back 16.7 million jobs since the start of the pandemic. [i] While we are still 5.7 million jobs below February 2020 levels, we are well on our way back to […]

When it comes to all things—economic or financial—almost everything looks like a mixed bag. U.S. GDP growth came in at 6.5%. Under any other circumstance, 6.5% would be incredible. Unfortunately, the consensus expectation was for around 8.5% growth. U.S. GDP finally crossed over the pre-COVID levels, which is great, yet we are still well below […]

As we face another media-driven week that will focus on the expanding delta variant of the COVID-19 virus, it is critical we do not apply old thinking to today’s circumstances. The virus is on another surge, with new cases back to levels we have not seen since April/May. The delta variant represents over 80% of […]