Weekly Commentary

It’s difficult to imagine risk these days when it comes to equity investing. Unlike an extreme skier or free solo climber, when an investor looks down, they can hardly see any exposure. The last twelve months have been an epic time for U.S. equities. 1 Over the last three years, cumulative returns have been even […]

We just published our Q1 2022 Look Ahead, you can view the presentation here or watch our narrated version here. We look at this year as the “thin green line”, with a lot of threads that will make up the difference between success and failure in equity markets throughout the world. Consumer StrengthWhen we think […]

As an investor in China and specifically their domestic “China A” stock market; I find myself often explaining China to many clients, friends, and family. While surrounded by family and friends this Christmas holiday, China was on the minds of many. With anti-China rhetoric at epic levels in the United States, a simple explanation can […]

The last few weeks of each quarter typically pose some unusual market behavior. More volatile, erratic, and even negative performance is not atypical. 1 It is my view that the lack of concrete earnings news drives investors to latch onto the news du jour to make investment decisions. Can you imagine trying to make critical […]

As the Christmas holiday fast approaches, Wall Street gears up for their annual tradition of predicting how markets will do in the coming year. The tradition is rooted in two very important investor behaviors: Investors love predictions and historically they forget inaccuracies. Last year, the major Wall Street firms published their prognostications for 2021. In […]

It is difficult to digest the mixed signals the economy is putting out in this current –and certainly unique– economic cycle while also remembering the investment game you are playing. Let’s start with the Federal Reserve: Chair Powell effectively acquiesced and removed his standing language that inflation would be transitory. 1 “We tend to use […]

Last week’s blog post focused on a strange dichotomy for the U.S. Consumer; their frustrations juxtaposed with their willingness to spend. I spend a tremendous amount of time focused on the U.S. consumer not just from a domestic macroeconomic perspective, but global. The United States represents 24.4% of global GDP. [1] The U.S. consumer represents […]

One of my key performance indicators for corporate earnings and U.S. GDP growth is the consumer. However, you do the math: without U.S. consumer spending, we would fast approach a growth cliff. Consumption is about 70% of the U.S. economy. Only on the margins can the government or fixed investment make up some ground when […]

I have been getting a lot of curious reactions to my view that inflation is transitory as I’m sure the Federal Reserve is as well. After all, last week inflation was reported at a 30-year high of 6.2% on a year-over-year basis. [i] Inflation is such a significant concern; consumer confidence is starting to erode. […]

As we wrote in our September 7 blog post, Soft Patch, job growth came to a screeching halt in August. Last week’s GDP report showed the U.S. economy slow dramatically in Q3. It was going to take some lifting of wages and jobs to get us over the economic hurdles of the last few months. […]