Weekly Commentary

Hope is not an investment strategy and humility is at the core of managing money. A transitioning inflationary picture has been our thesis for over 18 months. It’s been a much longer process than anticipated and, along the way, we used humility to adjust portfolios. ✔  Transitioned some large cap growth to quality to capture […]

It is hard to imagine the S&P 500 is only 7.8% off its high when you consider the various factors working against investors. 1 Inflation is sitting at near-record highs on both CPI and PCE. 23 Last week, the Fed signaled a very aggressive approach to fighting inflation in their recent statement. 4 “Many participants […]

We just published our Q2 2022 Look Ahead, you can view the presentation here or watch our narrated version here. Consumer Strength is WeakeningWhile wages have been lifting dramatically since the full re-opening of the economy, the consumer is facing some challenges. Savings have been spent down and consumers are now leaning into revolving credit […]

Last week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled willingness to accelerate the pace of interest rate increases during a recent speech he gave to the National Association for Business Economics: 1 “If we conclude that it is appropriate to move more aggressively by raising the federal funds rate by more than 25 basis points at […]

When we produced our video Coexisting as Superpowers with Jude Blanchette from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in May 2021, there was simply no way to predict the level of tension that would transpire between the United States and China.   We knew the United States would resist sharing global dominance with […]

If you’re busy trying to enjoy your retirement, make a living, support your organization, or save for retirement, you’re likely confused by the confluence of global macro events. What are the outcomes going to be? Will I be ok? These are the questions we often get asked– now more than ever.   Inflation is running […]

It is incredibly difficult to look around the macroeconomic corner and try to pre-position a portfolio to that guess. It’s far wiser to use sound principals when investing and apply those to our allocated portfolios.  Five Basic Rules for Equity Investors: Individual Investors Tend to Underperform Diversification: The Only Free Lunch in Finance Markets Move […]

It’s critical during significant times of crisis and market dislocation that we communicate early and often. Our weekly blogs are made for just that purpose. Last week’s blog addresses some of our macro views. However, with further sanctions impacting Russia we want to make sure you know the latest facts and the implications on portfolios. […]

When I wrote two weeks ago in Inflation, Rising Rates, War and Volatility: So, will there be a war between Ukraine and Russia? I’m doubtful. Russian aggression would jeopardize the certification of Nord Stream 2 by Germany and eliminate Russia’s negotiating power over transporting gas through Ukraine. My assumption that Putin was a rational actor […]

It’s a rare point in time when consumer sentiment diverges from consumption. Yet that is precisely the moment we are in. Overall sentiment by the U.S. public is very negative. According to Gallup a whopping 80% of Americans think our country is on the wrong track. This is the lowest reading since the pandemic or […]