Weekly Commentary

  Investors have been working new funds into both equities and fixed income.  Yet these two markets are forecasting widely different outcomes for the future of the U.S. economy.  Ultimately, like any clash of two titans, only one of them will win. [i]     As many fables go, the odds of a victory usually […]

  In last week’s market commentary, “Retail Therapy,” I wrote about the advanced look at retail sales numbers for December 2018.  The underlying takeaway from this post was that the advanced look could provide investors insight into whether good or bad times lie ahead. The U.S. Census Bureau’s announcement on February 14, 2019 was rather […]

  On Thursday, February 14, 2019, investors will get an advanced look at retail sales numbers from the December 2018 holiday shopping season.  Retail sales numbers are one of many economic indicators to which investors should pay attention.  Retail sales provide a unique glimpse into the behavior of consumers. With 70 percent of the U.S. […]

  When I wrote the “Here’s What I Know” blog, I was trying to prepare investors for some of the realities associated with taking equity risks.  Little did I know that just a few weeks later, investors would experience one of those core tenants of equity risks.  That core tenant was that markets move in […]

  With a temporary reprieve from the longest shutdown in our government’s history, from an investor’s perspective, it makes sense to examine the costs of the shutdown and what those costs mean for investors going forward. [ix]     According to Thomson Reuters, the closure will cost the U.S. economy $11 billion.  However, in the […]

    In today’s investment landscape, the specific focus on China has leapt to the top of the list.  The nonstop trade-war rhetoric between the United States and China is driving this focus. Those talks are ongoing but are expected to conclude before the end of March. In the meantime, China has been experiencing a significant […]

  Two weeks ago, equity markets were in free fall, with the S&P 500 index posting its worst December since the Great Depression in 1931.  [i]     Today, just two weeks into the new year, equity markets are on the rebound.  The S&P 500 has rallied 10.43 percent off the low, recovering 3.57 percent […]

  It’s time for the annual tradition by Wall Street firms to make their incredibly inaccurate forecasts for 2019.  Astonishingly, the average expected return for 2019 is over 20 percent. [i]     I’m not sure how they do this, or why they get away with such amazing inaccuracy, but they do.  Last year, the […]

  After another wild week on Wall Street, you might expect consumers’ nerves to be frayed.  [i]     On the contrary, consumers did nothing but shop.  According to Mastercard, this holiday season represented the strongest growth in consumer spending in the last six years, not to mention that online sales grew 19.1 percent from […]

Last week’s interest rate announcement should have been a clear and decisive save by the Fed.  As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised their benchmark interest rate ¼ point to 2.5 percent, but of more significance, they signaled a much more dovish tone for 2019. [i] According to Chairman Powell, they now only […]