Weekly Commentary

The trade war rhetoric has heated up, although we continue to maintain our view that this is more of a food fight than an actual fight. With trade war tensions dominating news headlines for the better part of 2018, the U.S. large-cap indices have shown low- to slightly-negative returns, whereas the indices in China—Hang Seng […]

U.S. equity markets have remained relatively flat year-to-date, despite the phenomenal corporate earnings we’ve seen this year.  Just consider this: The S&P 500 index is up 3.33 percent.  [i] All the while, earnings per share growth in Q1 came in at more than 20 percent. [ii] The outcome from this combination of low price appreciation […]

Last week the Federal Reserve reported U.S. household net worth had crossed over the $100 trillion level for the first time. [i] [ii] That is astonishing, particularly when you consider that U.S. household net worth was under $100 trillion as recently as Q4 2017, and since then we’ve experience only muted stock market returns. [iii] […]

  Donald Trump’s economic agenda looks to be gaining significant traction.  While U.S. GDP growth came in at 2.2 percent for Q1 2018, the underlying metrics look strong, especially consumption and fixed investments. [i] For Q1, consumption added 0.71 percent to the total GDP Growth of 2.2 percent, and fixed investments added 1.05 percent. [i] […]

We are fast approaching the longest economic expansion in recorded U.S. history. [i] The visceral reaction would be to think that this amazing economic run must be coming to an end soon.  That very well may be the case.  However, before making that determination, we should ask ourselves; why can’t this expansion continue, and set […]

It’s no secret that interest rates have been on the rise, but it appears they are rising at a faster pace as of late.   Specifically, home mortgage rates, which impact so many Americans, are at levels they haven’t been in some time.   In fact, 63 percent of Americans own their own home, and of those […]

The earnings growth for Q1 2018 was nothing short of spectacular.  Approximately 91 percent of companies in the S&P 500 reported results for the first quarter, and EPS is likely to land in the 25 percent growth range. [i] In fact, we have not seen EPS growth of this magnitude since 2010. [ii] If you […]

Almost always, advisors and investment managers focus on generating returns for their clients.  That’s the general emphasis when you hire someone to help you.  To that end, one generally expects over long periods of time to have a pie chart with a various mix of stocks (equities) and bonds (fixed income) that are likely to […]

The U.S. economy remains at full throttle and firing on all cylinders.  This past Friday, April 27, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, a division of the U.S. Department of Commerce, released the U.S. GDP numbers for Q1 2018.  [i] The U.S. GDP increased by an annual rate of 2.3 percent.  Despite the typical drag on […]

“A correction is a reverse movement, usually negative, of at least 10 percent in a stock, bond, commodity or index to adjust for an overvaluation. The latest stock market correction occurred on February 8, 2018 as the DJIA and the S&P 500 fell more than 10 percent from their recent highs hit in late January […]