Weekly Commentary

  We’ve written in the past on our view that President Trump is waging a trade war to maximize his influence on the Federal Reserve. Though we believe he is prosecuting a case against China, the uncertainty he is creating in global GDP growth, in our opinion, is causing the Fed to consider cutting interest […]

 A lot transpired last week as it relates to capital markets and the economy.  Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell almost assured market participants an interest rate cut is inevitable and likely to occur in July.  Chairman Powell made the following statements in his congressional testimony; “There is a risk that weak inflation will be even […]

  As the third-quarter of 2019 begins, we hope you have a chance to review our Q3 2019 Look Ahead.  A link to the PDF presentation can be found here with a narrated version here. Friday released an amazing jobs report that might assuage investor anxiety around a slowing economy. [i]     But not so fast! As […]

  The Trump administration looks to be playing its cards perfectly when it comes to its broader objectives and goals.  The administration announced it would be resuming trade discussions with China, without any specificity on when the trade discussions will conclude.  Trump suggested he would be patient. It’s critical to understand that, short of a […]

  Last week, our post analyzed the possibility that the Federal Reserve would make adjustments to its language suggesting that patience is still required when discussing cutting interest rates, due to weakening economic data.  [i] As predicted, the Fed did exactly that, removing the language regarding its previously more patient tone. Comparing the Federal Reserve’s […]

  As the year progresses, the economic forecasts of Federal Reserve Banks and economists suggest the U.S. economy is experiencing a significant downshift in growth.    In an example of a more enlightening forecast, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow forecast suggests that economic growth in Q2 could be as low as 1.5%. It […]

  In the midst of this historically prolonged period of economic growth, there is little question the U.S economy has hit a few speed bumps on its road to expansion. For investors, Friday’s jobs report demonstrated a significant indication of an economic slowdown.  The report estimated the U.S. economy added only 75,000 jobs in April, […]

  Last week’s commentary, which focused on regular recession cycles and the role credit plays in consumption/economic stimulation, can be viewed here. Over the past few weeks, the United States has witnessed a sharp deterioration in trade negotiations, adding further tension to already stressed global trade relations. This has created a sharp increase in market volatility […]

  Last week’s commentary focused on corporate borrowing and its relationships to the financial crisis, which can be viewed here. As history has repeatedly demonstrated, run-of-the-mill recessions are simply a reflection of a normal business cycle. These minor recessions serve as a natural correction to speculation, which allows the market to circumvent a major recession or […]

  So much of investor focus has been on the dysfunctional trade negotiations between the United States and China.  This has caused investors to miss some critical pieces of data from our economy.  Before I get to what that data may be, allow me to remind you of the simple fact that markets correct on […]