Weekly Commentary

    Talks of a recession seem to be on everyone’s mind following the decision by the Federal Reserve to put a hold on further interest rate hikes in 2019.  During last week’s blog post, “A Stair Case Maze of Confusion,” we discussed the inverted yield curve and its predictive power for recessions.  While it’s […]

(Earnings Recessions, Inverted Yield Curves, and Economic Recessions)   Every few years I repurpose some old themes and remind our readers that, although past performance is not always indicative of future performance, cycles do repeat themselves.  Through 2015 and much of 2016, the United States was facing an earnings growth recession amid an economic boom.  […]

  In most developed countries, an important public utility like power or water is always available with the flip of a switch or the turn of a knob.  As consumers, we have grown so dependent on these reliable services that we hardly think about how they work.  The expectations for 100 percent delivery are universal. […]

  The latest Employment Situations report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Friday, March 8, 2019, suggested the economy is in the midst of a massive cooling down. The United States economy added a mere 20,000 jobs versus the 181,000 that economists were expecting.  [i] [ii]     If this report is the […]

  One of the most astonishing economic miracles I have seen in my 30-plus years of professional investing is the possibility of our economy receiving a second wind. That’s right! Considering the length of this economic recovery compared to past recoveries, this qualifies as a growth miracle. [i]     To appreciate this growth miracle, […]

  Investors have been working new funds into both equities and fixed income.  Yet these two markets are forecasting widely different outcomes for the future of the U.S. economy.  Ultimately, like any clash of two titans, only one of them will win. [i]     As many fables go, the odds of a victory usually […]

  In last week’s market commentary, “Retail Therapy,” I wrote about the advanced look at retail sales numbers for December 2018.  The underlying takeaway from this post was that the advanced look could provide investors insight into whether good or bad times lie ahead. The U.S. Census Bureau’s announcement on February 14, 2019 was rather […]

  On Thursday, February 14, 2019, investors will get an advanced look at retail sales numbers from the December 2018 holiday shopping season.  Retail sales numbers are one of many economic indicators to which investors should pay attention.  Retail sales provide a unique glimpse into the behavior of consumers. With 70 percent of the U.S. […]

  When I wrote the “Here’s What I Know” blog, I was trying to prepare investors for some of the realities associated with taking equity risks.  Little did I know that just a few weeks later, investors would experience one of those core tenants of equity risks.  That core tenant was that markets move in […]

  With a temporary reprieve from the longest shutdown in our government’s history, from an investor’s perspective, it makes sense to examine the costs of the shutdown and what those costs mean for investors going forward. [ix]     According to Thomson Reuters, the closure will cost the U.S. economy $11 billion.  However, in the […]