Weekly Commentary

“Nothing Succeeds Like the Appearance of Success” – Christopher Lasch [xii] We are getting our first look at Q1 2018 earnings and they are extraordinary.  Although only a small percentage of S&P 500 companies have reported, those that have reported have beat, or exceeded, high expectations. [i] Because the sample size is extremely small (only […]

After the first week of trading for Q2 2018 we see many signals that volatility is here to stay. We would like to take this opportunity to present you with our Q2 2018 Look Ahead. For the PDF presentation, click here. For the narrated video presentation, click here. Below, we’ve highlighted several key elements from […]

The first quarter of 2018 was a wild one.  On twenty-four days of the quarter, the Dow moved over 1 percent in either direction within a single trading session. The same thing happened on only ten days in 2017. What’s more, we saw a 1,175-point decline on February 5—the largest single-day point decline in the […]

This past week President Trump announced his direct action against China in efforts to tame the trade imbalance between our two countries (China imports minus what we export to China).  That trade imbalance represents approximately $375 billion, which is 1.9 percent of our total U.S. GDP.  [i] [ii] It’s clear that the trend of imports […]

The U.S. debt level just blew the doors off any expectations.  Late last week the U.S. Department of the Treasury reported U.S. debt levels that topped $21 trillion. [i] Make no mistake, this is the highest level of debt on record. It also puts the U.S. economy at a debt-to-GDP level not seen since World […]

Last Friday, March 9, 2018, we celebrated a birthday that may have slipped your attention.  While we were watching the stock market thunder ahead 1.74 percent [i], Friday marked the ninth year of this current bull market and the second-longest stock market rally in our history. [ii] The visceral reaction to a prolonged bull market […]

The headline-grabbing Trump administration outdid itself this week, once again, after announcing steel and aluminum tariffs likely to be enacted next week.  [i] Not surprisingly, the market reacted violently to this announcement. [ii] Furthermore, U.S. equity volatility, as measured by the VIX, aka the “Fear Index,” jumped significantly following this news as well. [ii] Once […]

  The recent uptick in volatility within the equity markets, in my opinion, is due to investors quickly discounting rising inflation.  As we alluded to in last week’s post (here), the risk parity guys have done their share to contribute as well.  Inflation has never been the best of friends to equity investors.  Look no […]

Reading tea leaves and making precise forecasts are not things I would do, especially when it comes to predicting equity prices.  Last week’s post (here) made the case that panic was not an investment strategy.  I hope you read it— and reread it.  I can’t stress the points I made enough when it comes to […]

Exchange traded funds had their largest sell-off in eighty weeks, as investors ran for cover. [i] Panic is not an investment strategy.  How do I know this?  Shamefully, I tried it once.  It’s been more than three decades, but the memories and lessons I learned still linger in my brain more than thirty years later. […]