Weekly Commentary

Last Friday, March 9, 2018, we celebrated a birthday that may have slipped your attention.  While we were watching the stock market thunder ahead 1.74 percent [i], Friday marked the ninth year of this current bull market and the second-longest stock market rally in our history. [ii] The visceral reaction to a prolonged bull market […]

The headline-grabbing Trump administration outdid itself this week, once again, after announcing steel and aluminum tariffs likely to be enacted next week.  [i] Not surprisingly, the market reacted violently to this announcement. [ii] Furthermore, U.S. equity volatility, as measured by the VIX, aka the “Fear Index,” jumped significantly following this news as well. [ii] Once […]

  The recent uptick in volatility within the equity markets, in my opinion, is due to investors quickly discounting rising inflation.  As we alluded to in last week’s post (here), the risk parity guys have done their share to contribute as well.  Inflation has never been the best of friends to equity investors.  Look no […]

Reading tea leaves and making precise forecasts are not things I would do, especially when it comes to predicting equity prices.  Last week’s post (here) made the case that panic was not an investment strategy.  I hope you read it— and reread it.  I can’t stress the points I made enough when it comes to […]

Exchange traded funds had their largest sell-off in eighty weeks, as investors ran for cover. [i] Panic is not an investment strategy.  How do I know this?  Shamefully, I tried it once.  It’s been more than three decades, but the memories and lessons I learned still linger in my brain more than thirty years later. […]

It has been more than 552 days since we had a week when the markets corrected by 5 percent or more [i].  Recently, the S&P 500 finally experienced a slight pullback, and by the end of last week had corrected 3.9 percent. [ii] No surprise here, mainstream media made it out to be a cataclysmic […]

U.S. economic performance showed a little bit of a miss once GDP numbers for the fourth quarter were released.  GDP growth came in at 2.6 percent, which was much lower than the 3.4 percent growth forecasted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.   [i] [ii] The good news is that key areas of our economic […]

On the heels of Congress and the president passing one of the largest tax cuts in American history, which included a complete re-write of the corporate tax policy, the political circus picked up on cue and shut down the government.  Talk about a reversal of fortunes. [i] The good news is that the investor class […]

The U.S. consumer did not disappoint this past December.  Retail sales grew 5.8 percent year-over-year.  [i] Perhaps retail sales growth can provide a higher growth trajectory for the U.S. economy.  What is remarkable about the growth rate is not the 5.8 percent, but the fact that this growth rate is accomplished on a much larger […]

Happy Monday to everyone.  Today we released our Q1 2018 Quarterly Look-Ahead. For the PDF presentation, click here. For the narrated presentation, click here. One of the things I always find entertaining from the first quarterly look-ahead of a new year is the market predictions from the top major Wall Street firms.  In particular, I […]