Weekly Commentary

“Before I refuse to take your questions, I have an opening statement.” – Ronald Reagan [i] Last year was stellar for investors.  What does 2018 hold for us? With this bull market getting long, it is reasonable to expect markets in 2018 to take a pause.  [ii] In fact, the current bull market is more […]

With the end of 2017 quickly approaching, let’s see what parlor tricks Wall Street played on us this year. Last year we reported Wall Street’s market forecasts for 2017 in our Q1 2017 Look Ahead.  In our slide titled “Wall Street Parlor Tricks,” Wall Street’s most influential banks provided forecasts for the S&P 500, GDP […]

  We are on the cusp of what could be the most consequential tax reform in the last 30-plus years.  We have abstained from writing about the tax measure in the past because the likelihood of each proposal being passed seemed slim.  As of Friday, December 15, 2017, the House and Senate have both agreed […]

It would appear from the latest data that the U.S. economy is running full steam ahead.  There is little in terms of actual data that would suggest a slowdown is coming anytime soon.  Let’s review!   First, the latest jobs report suggests the economy is adding a sufficient amount of jobs to keep up with […]

  For the first time in seemingly a long time, we were reminded that markets do, in fact, fluctuate.  [i] Although we closed the week up 2.36 percent, we had a dramatic downswing this past Friday when the DOW Jones Industrial Average fell 300 points during the trading session.  Luckily, the DOW rallied back and […]

  The U.S. economy added another small notch to its macroeconomic growth narrative last week with sufficient growth from retailers.  Not surprisingly, traditional brick-and-mortar stores posted a small year over year (YOY) decline of 4 percent, while online retailers posted a strong YOY increase of 18 percent.  [i]  These results are why it can be […]

  I just concluded a round of quarterly client meetings where I presented our Q4 2017 Look Ahead.  You should have received this during the first week of October.  However, if you didn’t, I encourage you to review it by clicking the link above.  During the course of my quarterly meetings, several unexpected questions that […]

  As we wrap up the Q3 2017 earnings season, I would characterize the market’s response as nothing short of “dodging a bullet.” With 91 percent of the S&P 500 companies already having reported their Q3 earnings data, the cumulative growth rate across the index has been 6.1 percent.  That is nearly double the 3.1 […]

  Last Thursday the Republican Party unveiled their latest tax plan.  I would say it’s hardly worth spending any considerable amount of time discussing in detail, as it’s not clear what’s going to withstand the onslaught of lobbyists and special interest groups jockeying for the upper hand. Whatever the final plan is, it will need […]

It’s hard to imagine the current positive energy surrounding the U.S. equity markets.  Over the last fifty-two weeks, the S&P 500 has increased by 19.24 percent [i]. Last year we were convinced that the markets were poised to rally–not because of Trump but because we were emerging from an earnings recession.  You can read our […]