Weekly Commentary

First of all, we hope everyone had a happy, healthy, and safe Fourth of July!  Today marks the first full trading week of the third quarter and we have a lot coming up in the weeks ahead as companies begin to report their second-quarter numbers. We would like to take this opportunity to present you […]

  The second quarter just closed and with it ended another pretty strong performance for equity markets. In fact, the overall market, as measured by the S&P 500 Index, is up 8.24 percent in 2017.  Since the election of Donald Trump as U.S. President, the market has rallied a whopping 13.69%. [i] So much for […]

  I know it’s a bit clichéd to parallel the similarities of the Federal Reserve normalizing their balance sheet to some fictitious experience of diving into the unknown (which might as well be the plot line to a cheesy low-budget thriller), but to be perfectly honest, there isn’t a better way to approach it.  There […]

  Last week the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by another 25 basis points.  This is the third interest rate increase in the last eighteen months. [i] The Fed uses interest rates to promote full employment and control inflation; currently, the Fed has an annual inflation target of 2%.  [i] However, inflation has not hit […]

  While everyone was focused on the political circus in Washington DC last week, a little tidbit of news went largely ignored by the American public.  According to the Federal Reserve’s latest Q1 statistical release, Americans are the wealthiest that they have ever been. [i] Although American wealth has been steadily climbing for nearly fifty […]

  A countless number of commentaries written in the past eight years have been dedicated to the threat of disinflation/deflation. But why is disinflation/deflation so essential? The short answer is that disinflation, the slowing rate at which prices are increasing, leads to deflation. Deflation is the pricing decline in goods, which is generally positive for […]

  Last week during a CNBC interview, the famous Nobel Prize winner and Yale University professor, Robert Shiller, said, “It [the market] could go up 50 percent from here. That’s what it did around 2000; after it reached this level, it went up another 50 percent.” [i] I’m not saying that I’m convinced this will […]

  Usually, when discussing macroeconomic trends, we focus on fiscal or monetary policy, taxes, or political risks both domestically and abroad. However, we often don’t spend enough time discussing inflation.  Inflation has a significant impact on equity investments.  Take dividend-paying stocks, for example. During periods of inflation the purchasing power of those dividends diminishes, causing […]

  It seems that the European Union (EU) is breathing a bit more easily now that centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron has won the French presidency in last weekend’s election. Macron’s pro-EU stand will likely help strengthen the EU as a whole, which will likely put the squeeze on the United Kingdom and its desire to […]

  The strength of the latest jobs report continues the trend in the U.S. labor force.  In April 2017, the U.S. economy added 211,000 more jobs.  Hospitality/leisure, professional and business services along with healthcare showed solid growth. [i] The unemployment rate fell to 4.4 percent, matching the low in 2006 just prior to the Global […]