Weekly Commentary

  “It only takes one clown to make a circus.” These were words professed by former SEC Chairman Arthur Levitt during a conference I attended about 20 years ago. Those words prove prophetic today as we conclude the political silly season we have been locked into for the last 18 months. The real question is: […]

  Finally, we had some decent U.S. macroeconomic developments. As reported on Friday, with U.S. GDP growing at 2.9%, this is the best quarter over quarter growth since mid-2014. [i] Behind the headline numbers lay some interesting details. First, the U.S. Consumer (as we opined in our Q4 2016 Look Ahead) looks to be holding […]

  As we approach the end of this political silly season, it’s not surprising to see the range of concerns shared by investors and advisors alike. Taken from the Eaton Vance Top-of-Mind Index survey: [i] The Fed’s impending rate rise is the top concern Following in second place is the Presidential election And in third […]

  As we start the 2016 Q3 earnings report season, it’s prudent to take a look at how this third quarter might turn out. Now that the election outcome is looking a little more certain and “status quo” oriented, market participants might take this time to start turning their attention toward earnings. Expectations are for […]

  Relative to the last few decades of cooperation, it’s becoming increasingly clear that the entire world is adopting a competitive footing. This is a timely matter seeing as we are in the middle of a national election that will select the person that will lead the world to either greater cooperation, or to increased […]

  With the start of the Fourth Quarter, we are pleased to present you our Q4 Look Ahead. For a PDF copy, click here. For our audio and video presentation, click here. Below we’ve highlighted a number of key themes from our Q4 Look Ahead. 1. Are the negative interest rate policies (NIRPs) working? The […]

  Continuing with our “Policy Driven World” narrative, this past week we saw the Fed once again pass on an interest rate increase. Let’s take a look at why. It’s clear by almost any measurement that the U.S. economy is growing more dependent on the U.S. consumer. In fact, if you deduct the growth in […]

This week the Federal Reserve will meet in order to set the interest rate policy for the next several months. It’s a 50/50 toss-up whether they raise interest rates by 25bp or continue to hold rates at their current level. Inevitably, the Fed will need to address the same issue all public institutions grapples with; […]

  Until last Friday, the S&P 500 had not moved up or down more than 1% in 46 days, which is the longest it’s stayed in such a tight trading range since July 2014, when we hit a 20-year record of 62 days. [i] While the drop does not signify a breakdown in any one […]

    Investors are pulling their funds from Europe and deploying capital in the U.S. and Emerging Markets, leading to a new record with $86.0B so far this year flowing out of European funds for the past six months. This represents more than two-thirds of last year’s inflows of $123.0B. [i] The previous record for […]