Weekly Commentary

  The Federal Reserve held their seminal meeting last week and came to the conclusion that the economy was nearing a point where a rate increase is likely. Fed Chairwomen Yellen said: “Indeed, in light of the continued solid performance of the labor market and our outlook for economic activity and inflation, I believe the […]

  With equity valuations extended, and earnings growth in the 5th consecutive quarter of recession [i], it’s hard not to wonder when a correction, or worse, a bear market might ensue. Confounding the situation is all the positive macroeconomic news which suggests the current market strength might continue. After presenting to a recent investment committee, […]

    On Thursday, the Dow Jones, NASDAQ, and S&P 500 all hit all-time highs, respectively. [i] According to our research vendor, Bespoke, the last time this occurred was December 31st, 1999. The likely reason no one remembers this moment was that we were all too focused on Y2K. At the end of 1999, people […]

  In spite of the continued corporate earnings recession (now in its 5th consecutive quarter), the U.S. Consumer looks resilient and getting even stronger. The most recent Jobs Report was a blockbuster. The U.S. Economy added 255,000 jobs during the month of July. Most of the gains came in the private sector and in particular […]

  I was fishing in the shallow water Bayou’s of Louisiana recently and was amazed at the capabilities of our large boat. Given such challenging operating conditions, it just skimmed through the water; the boat had approximately 18 inches of draft – the minimum depth a boat or ship can operate in. With the announcement […]

It’s happened again! Expectations for a return to earnings growth are being postponed. According to FactSet, Q3 2016 earnings are now expected to shrink by -0.1%, thus extending the current earnings recession, which has already persisted for more than a year. During this week’s earnings reports, which covers the Q2 timeframe from 4/1/2016-6/30/016, forward guidance […]

  One of the best parts of visiting with your friends and clients is the fairly large dose of reality that you receive. For professional investors, getting used to the up’s and down’s of the market builds a certain level of emotional immunity. Those that make their living in the real economy, such as many […]

  With the start of the 3rd quarter under way, it’s customary for us to provide our readers and clients with our Look Ahead.   For a PDF copy, click here. For our audio and video presentation, click here.   The following are a few key themes in our Look Ahead: Earnings are poised to […]

  With all the recent turmoil around citizens of the U.K. voting to leave the European Union, it’s easy to get caught up in the emotions of the event and forget about the original ‘Brexit’. As yesterday was our nation’s birthday, let’s not forget that over 240 years ago, we as British Subjects chose to […]

  The U.K.’s referendum, which was a non-binding advisory vote, to leave the EU caught everyone by surprise. The surprise was that the decision to leave the European Union is so detrimental to the citizens of Great Britain. Why would they vote to leave? The famed author T.S Elliot once wrote, “We had the experience […]