Weekly Commentary

  With the start of the Fourth Quarter, we are pleased to present you our Q4 Look Ahead. For a PDF copy, click here. For our audio and video presentation, click here. Below we’ve highlighted a number of key themes from our Q4 Look Ahead. 1. Are the negative interest rate policies (NIRPs) working? The […]

  Continuing with our “Policy Driven World” narrative, this past week we saw the Fed once again pass on an interest rate increase. Let’s take a look at why. It’s clear by almost any measurement that the U.S. economy is growing more dependent on the U.S. consumer. In fact, if you deduct the growth in […]

This week the Federal Reserve will meet in order to set the interest rate policy for the next several months. It’s a 50/50 toss-up whether they raise interest rates by 25bp or continue to hold rates at their current level. Inevitably, the Fed will need to address the same issue all public institutions grapples with; […]

  Until last Friday, the S&P 500 had not moved up or down more than 1% in 46 days, which is the longest it’s stayed in such a tight trading range since July 2014, when we hit a 20-year record of 62 days. [i] While the drop does not signify a breakdown in any one […]

    Investors are pulling their funds from Europe and deploying capital in the U.S. and Emerging Markets, leading to a new record with $86.0B so far this year flowing out of European funds for the past six months. This represents more than two-thirds of last year’s inflows of $123.0B. [i] The previous record for […]

  The Federal Reserve held their seminal meeting last week and came to the conclusion that the economy was nearing a point where a rate increase is likely. Fed Chairwomen Yellen said: “Indeed, in light of the continued solid performance of the labor market and our outlook for economic activity and inflation, I believe the […]

  With equity valuations extended, and earnings growth in the 5th consecutive quarter of recession [i], it’s hard not to wonder when a correction, or worse, a bear market might ensue. Confounding the situation is all the positive macroeconomic news which suggests the current market strength might continue. After presenting to a recent investment committee, […]

    On Thursday, the Dow Jones, NASDAQ, and S&P 500 all hit all-time highs, respectively. [i] According to our research vendor, Bespoke, the last time this occurred was December 31st, 1999. The likely reason no one remembers this moment was that we were all too focused on Y2K. At the end of 1999, people […]

  In spite of the continued corporate earnings recession (now in its 5th consecutive quarter), the U.S. Consumer looks resilient and getting even stronger. The most recent Jobs Report was a blockbuster. The U.S. Economy added 255,000 jobs during the month of July. Most of the gains came in the private sector and in particular […]

  I was fishing in the shallow water Bayou’s of Louisiana recently and was amazed at the capabilities of our large boat. Given such challenging operating conditions, it just skimmed through the water; the boat had approximately 18 inches of draft – the minimum depth a boat or ship can operate in. With the announcement […]