Weekly Commentary

Cross Over Period The end of Q2 was anything but a sleeper for US and Global equities. You can see from the table below the results were a yawner for US Equites but the volatility was far from it.   Comparison of Q2 Index Price Change vs. Volatility (i)(ii)   The general theme that pervaded […]

  This past week was perhaps one of the most consequential weeks the world and especially the US has seen in quite some time. Between the Supreme Court rulings and the Senate’s passage of the fast-track legislation, which may lead to the passage of the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership, it’s been a busy week. Whether you […]

  The US Consumer balance sheet is as strong as it has ever looked. With 97 trillion in assets and 14 trillion in liabilities, consumers have a very strong net worth. In fact, when you look at American’s debt service levels they are at the lowest point since the Federal Reserve began tracking this data. […]

Finally, there’s some good news from the consumer. Retail sales were up 1.2% from last month with gains in almost all sectors.[i] On a year over year basis retail sales are up 2.7% and if you exclude auto and gasoline they are up 4.3%. Perhaps we are finally seeing the consumer part ways with their […]

  Waiting to Exhale – Quickly Last Friday’s employment report provided a brief moment to exhale as it suggests the US economy may not slip into a recession during the second quarter. US companies added 280,000 jobs during the month of May, much stronger than the anticipated 225,000 number of jobs forecast by economists.[i][ii] The […]

  It seems to me that everyone is talking about the excessive valuations the US equity markets are trading at today. Indeed it is elevated, and certainly much of the concern is warranted based upon dismal Q1 earnings.[i] The diatribe has almost reached a crescendo when I begin to see very skilled large foundation and […]

  We are approaching a very large US macroeconomic data point on May 29 – the revised Q1 US GDP reading. I want to raise a little red flag. It should come as no surprise to our readers that Q1 US GDP came in at a very anemic .2% growth.[i] In fact, for several years […]

  If you have been reading our recent posts, you know we have become increasingly concerned about corporate earnings growth. Although speculators will make investments based upon a host of reasons, we tend to stay focused on what matters…earnings. Earnings have been abysmal in the first quarter as you can read from our prior writing. […]

  There was a lot going on during the week with earnings season coming very close to an end and a big jobs report on Friday. Earnings are weak and got weaker as the season progressed.[i] On the other hand, the job market heated up considerably in April from a revised, very soft March.[ii] These […]

  As we anticipated in last week’s post, US GDP did come in at a very disappointing 0.2% growth.[i] This was anemic and also much slower growth than the expected growth of 1.0%.[ii] When you examine the component parts of US GDP, (Consumption + Investment + Government Spending – Net Exports), there are signs of […]