Weekly Commentary

  This Wednesday, we will get confirmation on what has been the most anticipated economic event of the year, United States Q1 GDP growth. We may also receive insights about the economy and interest rates from the Fed, which has a meeting this week as well. It’s clear that some of the factors that will […]

  It’s the start of earnings season, so let’s take an early look at the numbers. With 56 of the S&P 500 companies reporting so far, earnings are coming in better than expected with 43 companies (77%) beating estimates.[i] Some bad news in the numbers appears on two fronts. First, while earnings are beating, they […]

  As is customary for us at Phillips and Company, we use the end of each quarter as an opportunity to look at what’s ahead in the coming quarter from a market perspective. Unlike many of the past quarters over the last 5 years, this quarter has the most pivotal issues to address. We review […]

  The time is growing near when we can start to filter the economic and earnings data from the general noise in the typical information flow of the markets. In my opinion, the classic Bull vs Bear clash will break down to two themes that are on the same side of the coin. Both seem […]

  On my recent visit to China, my goal was to learn much more about an economy we are invested in. It’s impossible to summarize China in any one post. It’s a country that is complex and so different than the United States, not just culturally but economically. I’m going to give it my best […]

  As expected last Wednesday, the Fed removed the word “patient” from its interest rate policy statement, moving us one step closer to potential interest rate increases, perhaps as soon as the Fed’s June meeting. However, the Fed will still be cautious and consider the merits of a rate increase on a meeting-by-meeting basis. While […]

  On Wednesday, the Fed will meet to discuss the future of interest rates in the United States. Most commentators don’t anticipate a rate increase at the March meeting, yet they do expect more certainty around rate hikes in the near future. With the removal of one word (“patient”) from its official statement around rate […]

  US equity markets sold off sharply on Friday driven principally by a very strong jobs report showing the US economy added 295,000 jobs in February.[i] This very strong news spooked equity investors as they awakened to the reality of higher US interest rates from the Federal Reserve Board. Higher interest rates impact stocks because […]

  We seem to be at another inflection point in the US economy and perhaps US equities. The US stock market has rallied for the last 72 months since the financial crisis and is up over 187%.[i] Valuations are moving to the upper end of their range compared to where they were in March of […]

  Now that we have mostly concluded earnings season (over 85% of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings), we enter a quiet period of data and investors shift their focus back to macro events.[i] Before I address the “quiet period”, let’s quickly review a summary of Q4 earnings. As you can see we exceeded on […]