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  1. August 2, 2021

    When it comes to all things—economic or financial—almost everything looks like a mixed bag. U.S. GDP growth came in at 6.5%. Under any other circumstance, 6.5% would be incredible. Unfortunately, the consensus expectation was for around 8.5% growth. U.S. GDP finally… More >>

  2. July 26, 2021

    As we face another media-driven week that will focus on the expanding delta variant of the COVID-19 virus, it is critical we do not apply old thinking to today’s circumstances. The virus is on another surge, with new cases back to levels we have not seen since April/May.… More >>

  3. July 19, 2021

    The latest reading on inflation once again pointed to higher prices for consumers. On a year-over-year basis, headline CPI was up 5.4% in June – the largest increase since August 2008. [i] This was on top of a May jump of 5% in consumer prices. Our view is that… More >>

  4. July 12, 2021

    If you review our Q3 Look Ahead, our declaration that “The Consumer is in Control” is clearly playing out beyond our forecast. Recent data on consumer credit suggests the U.S. Consumer is looking pretty perky. [i] Consumers expanded their use of credit by a whopping… More >>

  5. July 5, 2021

    We just published our Q3 2021 Look Ahead, you can view the presentation here or watch our narrated version here. The Consumer is in ControlThe U.S. Consumer has stockpiled approximately $2.3 trillion in savings, or 10.4% of GDP. As the economy reopens, we expect consumers… More >>

  6. June 28, 2021

    As the U.S. economy is on the mend and moving toward a “return to normal” we need to be mindful of the extraordinary inputs the U.S. Consumer has been living on. The combination of transfer payments, one-time payments, rent abatements, and expanded unemployment benefits… More >>

  7. June 21, 2021

    As the economy is muddling through a reopening, fits and starts to supply and demand should be the only expectation. While volatility has been declining as we have been working our way to an economic reopening, investors should get used to living with volatility. [i]… More >>

  8. June 17, 2021

    Everyone is talking about inflation these days and the debate is consuming the minds of both the pundit and investor classes. Transitory or structural inflation is at the core of the debate. Headline CPI was reported last week at a whopping 5% on a year-over-year basis.… More >>

  9. June 14, 2021

    Everyone is talking about inflation these days and the debate is consuming the minds of the pundit and investor classes. Transitory or structural inflation is at the core of the debate. Headline CPI was reported last week at a whopping 5% on a year-over-year basis. [i]… More >>

  10. June 7, 2021

    As I write this post, I am having breakfast at a hotel in California. I ordered eggs and was told they have no eggs and that it is very spotty when they come in. Are chickens not laying eggs due to COVID? I don’t think so. [i] Egg pickers, truck drivers, packaging plant… More >>

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