Recent Posts

  1. January 18, 2022

    The recent print on U.S. inflation, as expected, was a record setting 7.0% year-over-year at the headline level. 1 I’ve been a broken record in repeating the fact that inflation is measured on a monthly rate of change basis compared to this time last year. While prices… More >>

  2. January 10, 2022

    It’s difficult to imagine risk these days when it comes to equity investing. Unlike an extreme skier or free solo climber, when an investor looks down, they can hardly see any exposure. The last twelve months have been an epic time for U.S. equities. 1 Over the last… More >>

  3. January 3, 2022

    We just published our Q1 2022 Look Ahead, you can view the presentation here or watch our narrated version here. We look at this year as the “thin green line”, with a lot of threads that will make up the difference between success and failure in equity markets throughout… More >>

  4. December 27, 2021

    As an investor in China and specifically their domestic “China A” stock market; I find myself often explaining China to many clients, friends, and family. While surrounded by family and friends this Christmas holiday, China was on the minds of many. With anti-China… More >>

  5. December 20, 2021

    The last few weeks of each quarter typically pose some unusual market behavior. More volatile, erratic, and even negative performance is not atypical. 1 It is my view that the lack of concrete earnings news drives investors to latch onto the news du jour to make… More >>

  6. December 13, 2021

    As the Christmas holiday fast approaches, Wall Street gears up for their annual tradition of predicting how markets will do in the coming year. The tradition is rooted in two very important investor behaviors: Investors love predictions and historically they forget… More >>

  7. December 6, 2021

    It is difficult to digest the mixed signals the economy is putting out in this current –and certainly unique– economic cycle while also remembering the investment game you are playing. Let’s start with the Federal Reserve: Chair Powell effectively acquiesced and removed… More >>

  8. November 29, 2021

    Last week’s blog post focused on a strange dichotomy for the U.S. Consumer; their frustrations juxtaposed with their willingness to spend. I spend a tremendous amount of time focused on the U.S. consumer not just from a domestic macroeconomic perspective, but global. The… More >>

  9. November 22, 2021

    One of my key performance indicators for corporate earnings and U.S. GDP growth is the consumer. However, you do the math: without U.S. consumer spending, we would fast approach a growth cliff. Consumption is about 70% of the U.S. economy. Only on the margins can the… More >>

  10. November 15, 2021

    I have been getting a lot of curious reactions to my view that inflation is transitory as I’m sure the Federal Reserve is as well. After all, last week inflation was reported at a 30-year high of 6.2% on a year-over-year basis. [i] Inflation is such a significant… More >>

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