Weekly Commentary

The latest readings on inflation and consumer spending confirmed one thing; the road back to a normalized inflationary and interest rate environment is going to be bumpy. Inflation posted a very modest reduction, and some would characterize it as “sticky.” It’s just not dropping fast enough for some market participants. On a month-over-month basis inflation […]

If a recession is coming consumers sure don’t know it. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index increased for the third consecutive month, the number came in at 66.4 in February, up from 64.9 in January. 1 Yet corporate earnings in the fourth quarter have been mixed, with both investors and companies focused on the […]

Wow! The U.S. economy added 517k jobs in January. This reversed a cooling trend and surprised everyone. 1 Oddly enough, wage growth continued to moderate in January in conjunction with the rapid expansion in employment. 2 The Fed has been on a warpath to cool the U.S. economy over the last year by raising rates […]

The recent release of U.S. GDP growth confirmed we are far from an economic recession. The U.S. grew at an impressive 2.9% in Q4. An inventory buildup and some modest help from the consumer are keeping the economy on a growth track. 1 Consumers contributed 1.42% to GDP growth, which on the surface could foretell […]

Just as we digest the possibility of a soft economic landing later this year, we will face a perilous self-inflicted wound: the debt ceiling. The U.S. government reached its borrowing limit last week and Congress must contend with expanding the amount of debt the Treasury department can issue. Right now, we are in debt to […]

The possibility of an economic soft landing vs. a recession later in the year inched closer to reality. Inflation moderated for the fifth consecutive month in December. Headline CPI slowed to 6.5% year-over-year in December vs. 7.1% in November. Core CPI slowed to 5.7% vs. 6.0% in November. In month-over-month terms, the top-line inflation metric […]

We are finally getting into the part of the economic cycle where we will start to see a visible slowing in the economy. Remember, a slower economy should pull inflation lower and help the Fed put a pause on interest rates. Both manufacturing and service activity have slipped into contraction mode. The recent purchasing managers […]

Our Q1 2023 Look Ahead is available for review. The video link is here and the PDF version is here. In this post, we highlight some key themes we see coming this quarter. The main question for 2023 is whether a recession is coming. Our view is that although the yield curve is inverted, the […]

We hope this holiday blog finds you glowing from a wonderful Christmas. In that vein, I wanted to attempt to succinctly communicate a couple of brief points and get back to the holiday cheer. There is a growing divide between what the Federal Reserve is telegraphing when it comes to interest rates and what is […]

If you are a short-term trader captivated by the ups and downs of markets and the twists and turns with the Federal Reserve, this is a great blog for you. Read on. If you’re a very long-term investor this great article on one of my favorite restaurants, The Old Bull, might be more enjoyable. Last […]