Weekly Commentary

The Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by another 50 to 75 basis points this week and creep a little closer to combating inflation without tipping the economy into a recession. Similar to walking on a teeter-totter; at some point, you pass the balance point, and it tips over suddenly. That’s what the Fed is […]

Two significant shifts took place last week that could provide an alternate backdrop for investors. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) finally announced some significant moves to moderate their draconian COVID Zero policy. Earlier in November, China modified their COVID policy to allow more local control and easing with their 20 point plan (link). In spite […]

The ultimate consumer shopping days are now in the books and the outcomes are impressive.  According to recent transaction data from Adobe, consumers have spent more this holiday season than 2020 or 2021.(1)  While growth rates are modest, raw dollars being spent are remarkable, inflation or not. Expectations for the consumer to outspend this Black […]

  On behalf of the entire team at Phillips & Company Advisors, we wish you and your family a wonderful Thanksgiving. In an unprecedented year of challenges we are still mindful of the many things we are thankful for, especially your trust and confidence. Tim Phillips, CEO, Phillips & Company  

  During any trend transition from growth to contraction, and back to growth, investors are pitted against each other – between optimism and pessimism, classic buyers vs. sellers. The two overarching themes of our current environment are interest rates and inflation. Over 35 years of professional investing, I’ve seen a multitude of themes that drove […]

Last week was a classic reminder to those that believe they can outsmart and outwit equity markets. The notion that someone has a crystal ball into what moves millions of equity investors should be debunked for the time being. Our basic ground rule is equity returns occur in brief bursts and if you miss just […]

Once again, we are left in monetary limbo. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points last week, taking the Fed Funds rate to 4%. Unfortunately for investors trying to understand how to value future cash flows, the Federal Reserve was also uncertain about the trajectory of forward rates. What was once anticipated […]

At Phillips & Company we interact with thousands of clients each year. The data points we gather by listening are incredibly powerful. It’s not infrequent at this stage in an economic cycle, especially with the massive drawdown in portfolios, that clients ask why we don’t move to cash and get out of the way? It’s […]

It’s a difficult task as an investor to allocate capital when we are in the midst of so much interest rate uncertainty. The formula is pretty straight forward for equity investors. We want a premium return over the risk-free rate (10-year Treasury). Everyone might want something different in excess, but we all suffer the same […]

  “No amount of sophistication is going to allay the fact that all of your knowledge is about the past and all your decisions are about the future.” Ian E. Wilson (former Chairman of GE) Last week’s inflation data dealt a crushing blow to any hope of avoiding the full measure of Fed’s rate increases. […]