Weekly Commentary

I don’t put much weight into forecasts especially when it comes to long-term investing. Even those with the most access to the best data get it wrong. That point is made abundantly clear by our friend and bestselling author Morgan Housel. Take a quick look at this very short video to see what he’s talking […]

The second quarter ended with strong equity performance across most equity indexes. 1 Take a look at how we see the coming quarter by clicking on this link to our Q3 2023 Look Ahead. Inflation continues to moderate, with prices for food, energy, and rent declining. Contrast this against producer prices which are also slowing, […]

The world continues to provide a multi-crisis economic backdrop, making equity investing challenging. The biggest news has been the instability in Russia, the largest nuclear power in the world. 1 Assuming cooler heads prevail as domestic instability in Russia unfolds, the real focus should be on the second largest economy in the world, China. 2 […]

During the earnings quiet period investors tend to focus their attention on a host of other issues. The most recent focal point is the Fed’s interest rate pause/skip decision last week. For the sake of simplicity and brevity they signaled another 50 basis points of rate increases in the coming months after a brief pause. […]

After one of the longest lasting bear markets in history, the S&P 500 closed up 20% off its 10/12/2022 low on Friday to kick off the official start of another bull market. If history is any guide there is more positive market action to come, according to our research friends at Bespoke Investment Group. 1 […]

It might be easy to get distracted by the above expectations Jobs Report on Friday. After all, it could and should signal more interest rate hikes ahead by the Fed. However, the real story might be the unintended consequences of the unlimited debt ceiling passed by Congress and signed by the President. The “down to […]

It would appear the cataclysmic “debt ceiling” debate could be in our rear-view mirror. However, never underestimate the ability of Congress to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. I’m not suggesting higher debt and borrowing are good for our economy, but not paying our debt is 100% bad for America. While Congress is cutting […]

“Knowing how to see” The negativity in the United States is palpable. I make a point of traveling often for the purpose of seeing what’s going on in our economy. Since most of our economy is driven by consumption it’s not too difficult to get a bird’s-eye view of what’s really happening. When you look […]

Inflation is finally abating according to last week’s Consumer Price Inflation report. Headline inflation came down to 4.9%, the 10th consecutive monthly decline. Is it too soon to use the word transitory again? 1 On a percentage change basis, it’s one of the more rapid drops since 1945. 2 Confirming the long-anticipated reduction in inflationary […]

After one of the most rapid and extreme increases in interest rates in history, I believe the Fed is about to signal a pivot to a pause. I’ll lay out the case and conclude with the Fed’s comments. 1 In light of the strength in the recent jobs report, one might wonder if the Fed […]