Weekly Commentary

The possibility of an economic soft landing vs. a recession later in the year inched closer to reality. Inflation moderated for the fifth consecutive month in December. Headline CPI slowed to 6.5% year-over-year in December vs. 7.1% in November. Core CPI slowed to 5.7% vs. 6.0% in November. In month-over-month terms, the top-line inflation metric […]

We are finally getting into the part of the economic cycle where we will start to see a visible slowing in the economy. Remember, a slower economy should pull inflation lower and help the Fed put a pause on interest rates. Both manufacturing and service activity have slipped into contraction mode. The recent purchasing managers […]

Our Q1 2023 Look Ahead is available for review. The video link is here and the PDF version is here. In this post, we highlight some key themes we see coming this quarter. The main question for 2023 is whether a recession is coming. Our view is that although the yield curve is inverted, the […]

We hope this holiday blog finds you glowing from a wonderful Christmas. In that vein, I wanted to attempt to succinctly communicate a couple of brief points and get back to the holiday cheer. There is a growing divide between what the Federal Reserve is telegraphing when it comes to interest rates and what is […]

If you are a short-term trader captivated by the ups and downs of markets and the twists and turns with the Federal Reserve, this is a great blog for you. Read on. If you’re a very long-term investor this great article on one of my favorite restaurants, The Old Bull, might be more enjoyable. Last […]

The Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by another 50 to 75 basis points this week and creep a little closer to combating inflation without tipping the economy into a recession. Similar to walking on a teeter-totter; at some point, you pass the balance point, and it tips over suddenly. That’s what the Fed is […]

Two significant shifts took place last week that could provide an alternate backdrop for investors. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) finally announced some significant moves to moderate their draconian COVID Zero policy. Earlier in November, China modified their COVID policy to allow more local control and easing with their 20 point plan (link). In spite […]

The ultimate consumer shopping days are now in the books and the outcomes are impressive.  According to recent transaction data from Adobe, consumers have spent more this holiday season than 2020 or 2021.(1)  While growth rates are modest, raw dollars being spent are remarkable, inflation or not. Expectations for the consumer to outspend this Black […]

  On behalf of the entire team at Phillips & Company Advisors, we wish you and your family a wonderful Thanksgiving. In an unprecedented year of challenges we are still mindful of the many things we are thankful for, especially your trust and confidence. Tim Phillips, CEO, Phillips & Company  

  During any trend transition from growth to contraction, and back to growth, investors are pitted against each other – between optimism and pessimism, classic buyers vs. sellers. The two overarching themes of our current environment are interest rates and inflation. Over 35 years of professional investing, I’ve seen a multitude of themes that drove […]