Weekly Commentary

Economic soft spots are showing up across the globe in third quarter GDP reports. China reported Q3 GDP growth of 4.9% year-over-year (0.8% annual rate). [i] The European Union experienced similar weakness in Q3 with collective GDP growth of 2.2% on a year-over-year basis. [ii] United States Q3 GDP came in at an anemic 2% […]

Supply chain disruptions have remained near record-high levels for the last five months. Those disruptions partially reflect congestion at U.S. ports, to which the media has increasingly called attention. A specific focus has been on the number of vessels anchored outside of the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. However, the backlog of ships […]

Global supply chain challenges combined with a constrained labor supply have many worrying about stagflation – the combination of economic stagnation and inflation. People are fearing that we’re headed into this type of economy where inflation is rampant yet, the economy is not growing. The weak historical performance of equities in stagflationary environments helps explain […]

Third quarter earnings season is upon us and perhaps it is time to take stock of what to expect. There is a lot of noise that makes it hard for investors to separate the “wheat from the chaff.” One thing is certain, earnings season has mattered most during the pandemic. According to Bloomberg, the equity […]

We just published our Q4 2021 Look Ahead, you can view the presentation here or watch our narrated version here. Jobs + Wages = ConsumersWe expect wages and jobs to drive consumer behavior in the fourth quarter. Rising wages, especially in the lower-wage service sector, are continuing to put more firepower in the hands of […]

It’s going to be a heavy week of American politics that will certainly have some impact on our equity markets. We previewed some of that volatility last week when U.S. equities sold off dramatically only to rally back. [i] Some of that sell off early in the week was caused by one of China’s largest […]

Upcoming legislative chaos will put the Fed in a pretty tight box when it comes to tapering bond purchases—despite great retail sales numbers in August and improving consumer sentiment according to the University of Michigan survey. [i] [ii] The House Ways and Means Committee passed sweeping tax reform last week along with twelve other House […]

U.S. GDP is on a trajectory that suggests Q3 growth will come in significantly lower rate than when we started the quarter. Going from an expected 6.1% growth rate to 3.7% is a 40% reduction—which is no small matter. [i] The component parts of GDP have been weakening throughout the quarter and much of that […]

The August jobs report was an unmitigated disappointment relative to expectations. The U.S. economy added 235k jobs in August—well below the consensus estimate of 733k jobs. It’s also the lowest number of jobs being added in a month since January when the U.S economy added just 233k jobs. [i] When you peel back a layer, […]

    Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, and Ambiguous seem to be the essence of our current times. Our last blog suggested President Biden’s $3.5 trillion domestic agenda could be in jeopardy if volatility in Afghanistan persisted. After the tragic deaths of 13 brave young American military personnel and scores of Afghans, it is anyone’s guess what’s […]