Weekly Commentary

The latest reading on inflation once again pointed to higher prices for consumers. On a year-over-year basis, headline CPI was up 5.4% in June – the largest increase since August 2008. [i] This was on top of a May jump of 5% in consumer prices. Our view is that inflation will likely moderate to much […]

If you review our Q3 Look Ahead, our declaration that “The Consumer is in Control” is clearly playing out beyond our forecast. Recent data on consumer credit suggests the U.S. Consumer is looking pretty perky. [i] Consumers expanded their use of credit by a whopping $35 billion in May and expectations are looking strong for […]

We just published our Q3 2021 Look Ahead, you can view the presentation here or watch our narrated version here. The Consumer is in ControlThe U.S. Consumer has stockpiled approximately $2.3 trillion in savings, or 10.4% of GDP. As the economy reopens, we expect consumers to continue to spend down their savings, and it is […]

As the U.S. economy is on the mend and moving toward a “return to normal” we need to be mindful of the extraordinary inputs the U.S. Consumer has been living on. The combination of transfer payments, one-time payments, rent abatements, and expanded unemployment benefits are soon to fade into the sunset. Transfer payments (money from […]

As the economy is muddling through a reopening, fits and starts to supply and demand should be the only expectation. While volatility has been declining as we have been working our way to an economic reopening, investors should get used to living with volatility. [i] Unfortunately, it is in our nature to consider things that […]

Everyone is talking about inflation these days and the debate is consuming the minds of both the pundit and investor classes. Transitory or structural inflation is at the core of the debate. Headline CPI was reported last week at a whopping 5% on a year-over-year basis. [i] Remember, the Federal Reserve long-term inflation target is […]

Everyone is talking about inflation these days and the debate is consuming the minds of the pundit and investor classes. Transitory or structural inflation is at the core of the debate. Headline CPI was reported last week at a whopping 5% on a year-over-year basis. [i] Remember, the Federal Reserve long-term inflation target is 2%. […]

As I write this post, I am having breakfast at a hotel in California. I ordered eggs and was told they have no eggs and that it is very spotty when they come in. Are chickens not laying eggs due to COVID? I don’t think so. [i] Egg pickers, truck drivers, packaging plant workers, warehouse […]

Last week it was reported that U.S. GDP grew by 6.4% in Q1, primarily attributable to the boost delivered by new stimulus injections during the quarter. [i] [ii] The predominant driver was consumer spending which grew 11.3% and contributed 7.4 percentage points to GDP, again driven by stimulus injections. Between the massive government support and […]

This week we will host Jude Blanchette from the Center for Strategic International Studies to discuss China and the United States. CSIS is a globally relevant, nonpartisan think tank ranking amongst the best in Washington. CSIS is a clear leader in advising companies and U.S. policymakers on international relations and trade issues. Jude has a […]