Weekly Commentary

The “get back to work” wage is becoming a crisis in almost every state. Our evaluation suggested it would take approximately $19.35 per hour to get people back to work based upon all of the state and federal unemployment payments being provided. [i] As of this morning, it appears at least 19 states have now […]

Just about everywhere in the United States, visible examples of the mismatch between supply and demand are occurring in our economy. Everyone has likely experienced the supply/demand curve shifting—it is almost daily when it comes to the supply of labor and demand for goods and services. Hotel rooms are in hot demand, yet there is […]

It would appear all systems are “go” with a great economic recovery for America. It’s hard to believe but, the Biden and Trump administrations bought themselves an economy. Personal income exploded higher by 21% in March, the highest in over 60 years. [i] This is almost entirely driven by transfer payments from the U.S. government […]

The Biden administration’s tax plan is finally coming into clarity after nearly 100 days in office. Just to level set this post, his tax plan had been widely distributed during his campaign. Generally speaking, it should come as no surprise that taxes are going to go up. Here were President Biden’s campaign proposals: [i] Last […]

It’s a rare occasion when we as investors get to experience in real time why markets have always gone up over long periods of time. [i] With over 30 years as a professional investor on behalf of myself and others, I wish I knew at day one what I know today. When investing in stocks: […]

Adding nearly 1 million jobs in the latest jobs report (including revisions from the prior month) would suggest we are fast on our way to a full recovery. [i] Under normal circumstances, investors would be quick to conclude rising rates are on the horizon to stem fast-approaching inflation– especially if you consider the historic amounts […]

We just published our Q2 2021 Look Ahead, you can view the presentation here or watch our narrated version here. Consumer Strength – Close to LiftoffThe coming quarter will be a period of rapid reopening, with COVID-19 vaccine availability occurring much faster than anticipated. By mid-April, 90% of all adults in the United States will […]

Since February 2020, China has been leading the way in the recovery from COVID-19 and economic re-opening. New confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Mainland China have been near zero since the beginning of February. [i] China has achieved a post-pandemic recovery in most areas, including manufacturing and fixed asset investment (capital spending). [ii] [iii] A […]

The recent high-level talks in Alaska between Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, and their Chinese counterparts are being viewed as a continuation of the Trump-era rhetoric. Certainly, from the public statements, it would appear to be the case. The U.S. side lectured China on the handling of Hong Kong, the […]

The odds of seeing a triple play in baseball are something like 1 in 325. It’s an incredibly rare event—on par with passing important legislation in Congress. [i] It is remarkable the U.S. has completed what I consider the unlikely economic triple play: passing important fiscal policy legislation, extremely accommodative monetary policy, and individual spending […]