Weekly Commentary

We had a tough week in America and it’s critical we take a look at as much of it as possible. On the economic front, we are now seeing some headline erosion in growth. On a headline basis, July retail sales declined 1.1% month-over-month. [i] Beyond the headline numbers, much of the decline was driven […]

When it comes to investments, most everything is expensive these days. You name the asset class, and it’s likely trading at or near an all-time high: • U.S. Equities• Home prices• Commodities• U.S. Treasuries With valuations at extreme highs, forward-looking returns look gloomy. Famed investment house GMO, exemplifies this point in their forward-looking real return […]

The July jobs report came out on Friday and showed the U.S. economy added 943,000 jobs during the month. In total, the economy has added back 16.7 million jobs since the start of the pandemic. [i] While we are still 5.7 million jobs below February 2020 levels, we are well on our way back to […]

When it comes to all things—economic or financial—almost everything looks like a mixed bag. U.S. GDP growth came in at 6.5%. Under any other circumstance, 6.5% would be incredible. Unfortunately, the consensus expectation was for around 8.5% growth. U.S. GDP finally crossed over the pre-COVID levels, which is great, yet we are still well below […]

As we face another media-driven week that will focus on the expanding delta variant of the COVID-19 virus, it is critical we do not apply old thinking to today’s circumstances. The virus is on another surge, with new cases back to levels we have not seen since April/May. The delta variant represents over 80% of […]

The latest reading on inflation once again pointed to higher prices for consumers. On a year-over-year basis, headline CPI was up 5.4% in June – the largest increase since August 2008. [i] This was on top of a May jump of 5% in consumer prices. Our view is that inflation will likely moderate to much […]

If you review our Q3 Look Ahead, our declaration that “The Consumer is in Control” is clearly playing out beyond our forecast. Recent data on consumer credit suggests the U.S. Consumer is looking pretty perky. [i] Consumers expanded their use of credit by a whopping $35 billion in May and expectations are looking strong for […]

We just published our Q3 2021 Look Ahead, you can view the presentation here or watch our narrated version here. The Consumer is in ControlThe U.S. Consumer has stockpiled approximately $2.3 trillion in savings, or 10.4% of GDP. As the economy reopens, we expect consumers to continue to spend down their savings, and it is […]

As the U.S. economy is on the mend and moving toward a “return to normal” we need to be mindful of the extraordinary inputs the U.S. Consumer has been living on. The combination of transfer payments, one-time payments, rent abatements, and expanded unemployment benefits are soon to fade into the sunset. Transfer payments (money from […]

As the economy is muddling through a reopening, fits and starts to supply and demand should be the only expectation. While volatility has been declining as we have been working our way to an economic reopening, investors should get used to living with volatility. [i] Unfortunately, it is in our nature to consider things that […]