Weekly Commentary

  While everyone was focused on the political circus in Washington DC last week, a little tidbit of news went largely ignored by the American public.  According to the Federal Reserve’s latest Q1 statistical release, Americans are the wealthiest that they have ever been. [i] Although American wealth has been steadily climbing for nearly fifty […]

  A countless number of commentaries written in the past eight years have been dedicated to the threat of disinflation/deflation. But why is disinflation/deflation so essential? The short answer is that disinflation, the slowing rate at which prices are increasing, leads to deflation. Deflation is the pricing decline in goods, which is generally positive for […]

  Last week during a CNBC interview, the famous Nobel Prize winner and Yale University professor, Robert Shiller, said, “It [the market] could go up 50 percent from here. That’s what it did around 2000; after it reached this level, it went up another 50 percent.” [i] I’m not saying that I’m convinced this will […]

  Usually, when discussing macroeconomic trends, we focus on fiscal or monetary policy, taxes, or political risks both domestically and abroad. However, we often don’t spend enough time discussing inflation.  Inflation has a significant impact on equity investments.  Take dividend-paying stocks, for example. During periods of inflation the purchasing power of those dividends diminishes, causing […]

  It seems that the European Union (EU) is breathing a bit more easily now that centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron has won the French presidency in last weekend’s election. Macron’s pro-EU stand will likely help strengthen the EU as a whole, which will likely put the squeeze on the United Kingdom and its desire to […]

  The strength of the latest jobs report continues the trend in the U.S. labor force.  In April 2017, the U.S. economy added 211,000 more jobs.  Hospitality/leisure, professional and business services along with healthcare showed solid growth. [i] The unemployment rate fell to 4.4 percent, matching the low in 2006 just prior to the Global […]

Economically speaking, the first quarter of 2017 was simply uneventful.  First quarter 2017 GDP growth was nothing shy of anemic.  In fact, it seems to go hand in hand with the frail upward trend of economic recovery following the 2008 financial crisis. During the first quarter, the U.S. economy grew at a rate of 0.7%, […]

  On the back of the completed first round of the French election, markets both in the United States and abroad are having a great day.  Polling seems to show an improving lead for Emmanuel Macron over Marine Le Pen, which has certainly sparked another advantage for financials. [i] Major political news can always shift […]

It may come as a surprise to those who don’t follow the ups and downs of the stock market on a regular basis, but since the Federal Reserve raised the Federal funds rate three times since December 2015, long-term interest rates have dropped. That’s right – what was expected to be a catalyst for rising […]

  Simmering behind the political intrigue of our fiscal stimulus narrative, and the reassertion of the U.S. military presence in the world as a force for good, lays a hidden paradox: conflicting signals for market growth. According to Moody’s Analytics, the latest projections for U.S. GDP growth show that the U.S. will grow 2.2% for […]