Weekly Commentary

This past week I’ve heard from several of our clients. Realize we serve over 18,000 employees in 401(k) plans and thousands of individuals. Our data set is pretty broad, and I get a good feel for what they are thinking. There seems to be an anxious mood of late. Their businesses and jobs are going […]

We’ve spent so much time talking about inflation and interest rates over the course of the year that it’s easy to lose sight of other factors influencing markets. Let’s step away from the inflation narrative and look at a long-term trend impacting equity prices: The supply and demand of shares. The ever-shrinking supply of stock […]

The economy is definitely slowing. Last week’s blog reviewed the weakness in the labor market. Recent data suggests some consumer weakness is gathering steam. Consumer credit expanded well below expectations in March and revolving credit (credit card debt) expanded at the slowest pace since the pandemic. 1 I am convinced this is no coincidence. We […]

U.S. companies are finishing Q1 2024 earnings season on a strong note. So far, 80% of S&P 500 companies have announced earnings and they have exceeded expectations. If the 5% growth rate holds, this would be the highest earnings growth rate since Q2 2022 as per FactSet. 1 Simultaneous to great corporate earnings, the jobs […]

It’s becoming abundantly clear to me that the Federal Reserve might just have to pick the economic loser in this interest rate cycle. Picking winners and losers is dangerous business when it comes to public policy but that’s the game. When it comes to the Fed picking winners and losers, it can be disastrous. Let […]

Not since October 2023 has the S&P 500 had a 5% pullback. That all ended last week with the S&P 500 down 5.33% from its record-setting peak on March 29th. 1 It’s been that long since I reminded our investor clients that adjustments, pullbacks, drawdowns, and corrections happen. Not only do they happen; they occur […]

Talk of inflation is a constant and, frankly, an ongoing threat to sustained consumption. That narrative hardly changed last week and, most definitely, was exacerbated by the Iranian attack on Israel. It’s pretty clear from all the advanced warnings by the Iranians and successful missile interventions by the Americans and other Middle Eastern countries that […]

The labor market continues to exhibit amazing strength and resilience. The U.S. economy added 300,000+ jobs in March and, historically, that would suggest continued inflationary pressures. 1 One might even conclude interest rates are a long way from being cut due to such a strong jobs market. Historically, wages spike in order for companies to […]

Equity markets rose in the first quarter, with the S&P 500 gaining more than 10%. Inflationary pressures eased only modestly in the quarter leaving investors guessing on interest rates. That provided a slight drag on fixed income in the quarter. 1 Take a look at how we see the coming quarter by clicking on this […]

The exclamation/question mark combo (interrobang) in the title is not a typo. It’s a reflection of my view on what the Federal Reserve Chairman said last week during his press conference. He made a statement that seemed like a question to me. Of course, all of this still pertains to interest rates and the timing […]