Weekly Commentary

The recent U.S. election is being analyzed a thousand ways. Whatever way you see it, Americans voted for a change, and they were not alone. This year marked the first time that voters worldwide collectively voted for change. 1 Developed economies around the world faced two primary trends: illegal immigration and high inflation. These issues […]

We’re just a day away from electing a President, and the headline economy is performing very well. The U.S. economy expanded in Q3, with 2.8% GDP growth and consumer spending constituting 3.7% of that growth. This represents the highest consumer growth rate since Q1 2023. We are also seeing a significant bump in goods consumption […]

  Last week’s post focused on earnings, but I included a small teaser on tax policy using the chart below. It generated some interest, so perhaps it’s time to take a macro look at the implications of both the Harris and Trump tax policies. 1     According to the Tax Policy Institute, the Trump […]

In the coming weeks, the amount of political noise will be all-consuming. I’m sure it will be sucking all of the oxygen out of the earnings season which will be in full swing by the November election. The various tax proposals will be mind-boggling, with daily permutations. Currently the proposals look a little something like […]

The S&P 500 touched another record high last week, marking the 45th time it has set a record this year. Last week’s blog covered the topic of extreme pessimism. Really smart people can be seduced into pessimistic thinking even when the only logical reaction should be long-term optimism. But investing is frequently counterintuitive. 1 I’m […]

The world is grappling with a series of challenges: Escalating wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, a cataclysmic hurricane in the Southeast, and the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming Presidential election. For investors, it feels like scaling a wall of worry. While pessimism currently dominates public sentiment, a logical long-term perspective suggests optimism is warranted. […]

Equity markets maintained their upward momentum in the third quarter. For the first time in several quarters, large cap core outperformed growth. As interest rates began to decrease, we witnessed a tech sector recovery late in the quarter. This rate reduction also boosted bond market performance, particularly for longer-duration bonds. The Chinese government’s substantial fiscal […]

The Federal Reserve’s much-anticipated interest rate cut materialized last week. The Fed slashed rates by 50 basis points (bps) and signaled more reductions on the horizon. The Federal Reserve Board’s rate-setting committee provided some forward guidance: an additional 50 bps cut this year, followed by 100 bps next year, and 50 bps in 2026. 1 […]

This week the Federal Reserve will almost certainly cut interest rates. In fact, current market expectations suggest a 39% probability of a 25 basis point cut and a 61% chance of a more substantial 50 basis point reduction. But is this good news for investors? 1 I, among so many others, want to believe that […]

In the world of interest rates, things have finally returned to normal. Short-term rates are now lower than long-term rates and that seems right. Investors should get compensated more for longer duration bonds compared to shorter duration bonds. The yield curve began to invert in early 2022, driven largely by the Federal Reserve’s swift rate […]