Weekly Commentary

As the U.S. economy creeps towards a round of rate cuts, I think it’s important to take a step back and look at what is going to happen to all the money on the sidelines. Right now, money markets are sitting on a record $6 trillion. 1 The allure of higher yields on cash has […]

We’ve had an eventful few weeks of economic data that has led to a significant shift in interest rate policy, with the Federal Reserve Chair announcing a decisive move to lower rates. Here is a summary of what he said in his recent speech. 1 On Interest Rates: “The time has come for policy to […]

The nonstop nagging question of the last couple of years has been, “When will inflation abate?” I was certainly in the transitory camp, expecting inflation to subside much earlier than it did. However – and I say this cautiously – we may finally be witnessing the long-awaited moderation in inflation. While Americans might not feel […]

Market performance last week was the most consequential in years and at the same time it was like nothing occurred. If you went on a media vacation for the week, you would have hardly noticed any change in the major indexes. The S&P 500 had a precipitous drop on Monday yet churned higher during the […]

We are finally getting to the long-anticipated stage where the economy is showing signs of weakness, but not excessively so. Equity markets will reflect that uncertainty with increased volatility. That is to be expected. What will be unexpected is the behavior of those that speculate using leverage. However, the Fed should be on alert and […]

This week, as the Fed’s interest rate setting committee convenes, they face another opportunity to achieve the elusive ‘holy grail’ of monetary policy: soft-landing the economy. Balancing between an economy that’s neither too hot (inflationary) nor too cold (high unemployment) has long been a challenge. Inflation is finally cooling, consistent with the latest reading on […]

Albert Einstein once quipped, “Not everything that can be counted counts, and not everything that counts can be counted.” 1 With the U.S. Presidency being contested and the Democratic Party in chaos following President Biden’s withdrawal from the race, it’s easy to get baited into the news churn. However, we are finally back into earnings […]

How to Cope with Shocking Events and Your Portfolio. I have often called Presidential election years the ‘Silly Season.’ All the posturing, political speech, and empty promises make for a cynical consumer. However, things got serious this season. The attempt on former President Trump’s life that also cost an innocent American his life is serious […]

We are entering the phase of the economic cycle where things can look and feel a little painful. Yet equity returns can act in a counterintuitive manner. Let me explain. The recent jobs report suggested that the labor market was in good shape. However, when you look at the revisions to prior months you see […]

Overall equity markets rose in the second quarter, with the S&P 500 gaining 3.92% as investors have been digesting a mix of economic data points, including signs of a cooling labor market, receding inflation, as well as an evolving Fed policy outlook as the U.S. election cycle heats up for summer. 1 Take a look […]