Weekly Commentary

We are finally getting to the long-anticipated stage where the economy is showing signs of weakness, but not excessively so. Equity markets will reflect that uncertainty with increased volatility. That is to be expected. What will be unexpected is the behavior of those that speculate using leverage. However, the Fed should be on alert and […]

This week, as the Fed’s interest rate setting committee convenes, they face another opportunity to achieve the elusive ‘holy grail’ of monetary policy: soft-landing the economy. Balancing between an economy that’s neither too hot (inflationary) nor too cold (high unemployment) has long been a challenge. Inflation is finally cooling, consistent with the latest reading on […]

Albert Einstein once quipped, “Not everything that can be counted counts, and not everything that counts can be counted.” 1 With the U.S. Presidency being contested and the Democratic Party in chaos following President Biden’s withdrawal from the race, it’s easy to get baited into the news churn. However, we are finally back into earnings […]

How to Cope with Shocking Events and Your Portfolio. I have often called Presidential election years the ‘Silly Season.’ All the posturing, political speech, and empty promises make for a cynical consumer. However, things got serious this season. The attempt on former President Trump’s life that also cost an innocent American his life is serious […]

We are entering the phase of the economic cycle where things can look and feel a little painful. Yet equity returns can act in a counterintuitive manner. Let me explain. The recent jobs report suggested that the labor market was in good shape. However, when you look at the revisions to prior months you see […]

Overall equity markets rose in the second quarter, with the S&P 500 gaining 3.92% as investors have been digesting a mix of economic data points, including signs of a cooling labor market, receding inflation, as well as an evolving Fed policy outlook as the U.S. election cycle heats up for summer. 1 Take a look […]

With the upcoming Presidential Debate taking place this week and party conventions around the corner, election season is kicking off. The amount of anxiety around the outcome will be increasing as November approaches. Policy and personality differences will take the forefront and drive headlines. Volatility will likely increase consistent with historical trends, although it’s interesting […]

In the most recent Federal Reserve interest rate setting meeting and accompanying press conference, the Fed sent some subtle signals and ambiguities. First, the Fed continues to believe that the economy is on a growth path, with GDP projections matching their March projections. In fact, an examination of the trends for 2025 and 2026 reveals […]

The U.S. economy has shown remarkable resilience in the face of higher interest rates, with a combination of factors contributing to continued economic growth and a positive outlook for the stock market. One of the most significant factors supporting the U.S. economy is the unprecedented growth in investment income. According to the Commerce Department, Americans […]

The U.S. consumer has entered another soft patch. It’s a critical part of the cycle to allow the economy to cool, inflation to further decline, and helps restore a more neutral interest rate policy. The recent Q1 GDP report showed that U.S. economic growth moderated to 1.3% from 3.4% in Q4 2023 and is on […]