Weekly Commentary

The recent jobs report supports the ongoing narrative that the economy is on a “soft landing” trajectory. The U.S. economy added 216,000 jobs in December, while the 3-month average continues to trend downward. It’s almost the perfect scenario for a “soft landing.” 1 Much of the gains are coming in Health Care and Government. Not […]

Equity markets rose in the fourth quarter, with the S&P 500 gaining more than 24% for the full year as investors have been navigating a steadily growing U.S. economy and an end to the Fed’s rate hiking cycle. 1 Take a look at how we see the coming quarter by clicking on this link to […]

Just before the Christmas holiday consumer prices, as reported by the Federal Reserve’s favorite measure Core PCE, came in deflationary for the first time since April 2020. That’s right…prices actually dropped in November (ex-food and energy). 1 On a year-over-year basis, inflation is rapidly moving back toward the Fed’s 2% target. 2 When you blend […]

In a consequential week of economic reports, the Federal Reserve signaled an end to the rate hike cycle we’ve been in for over a year. While Fed Chair Powell didn’t explicitly say rate cuts were guaranteed, the nuance was pretty clear. According to the those that participate in setting interest rate policy, the consensus says […]

The Federal Reserve is going to be meeting this week and will likely confirm their pause in raising rates. So far, the Fed has orchestrated a perfect economic soft landing, if you want to give them credit for that. The latest consumer price report (PCE) solidified the continuing moderation trend in prices. Inflation is moving […]

The macro noise is deafening. So how is it possible we just finished one of the best months equity markets have seen in a long time? The S&P 500 was up almost 9% in November and a balanced portfolio of stocks and bonds had their best month in 30 years, up 7.3%. 1 The first […]

I should never doubt the US Consumer.  If you believed the recent Consumer Confidence Survey, the US Consumer should have been holding onto their pocketbooks this shopping season.  Consumer Confidence is incredibly low according to the survey by the University of Michigan.  Looking back over a 50-year period, the survey suggested the consumer was pretty […]

I concluded two weeks in SE Asia, simultaneously digesting incoming data from the United States and watching real-time economics play out in Asia. Macroeconomic themes that I saw play out firsthand: The property market slowdown in China. Slower luxury goods consumption (visited numerous luxury goods shops/malls). Apple is an exception, as they are as busy […]

I write this post from Hong Kong, my first trip back to Asia post the pandemic. The opportunity to visit with large capital allocators including our friends at JPMorgan and witness China’s largest single shopping day of the year on November 11th provided a great backdrop for the visit. China is critical to the global […]

The recent jobs report should give some reprieve to the Fed’s rapid rate increase cycle. The U.S. economy added 150,000 jobs in October and the unemployment rate rose to 3.9%. On a revised basis, job growth is now averaging 204,000 over the last 3 months compared to the unrevised 266,000 jobs gained in September. 1 2 […]