Weekly Commentary

With the upcoming Presidential Debate taking place this week and party conventions around the corner, election season is kicking off. The amount of anxiety around the outcome will be increasing as November approaches. Policy and personality differences will take the forefront and drive headlines. Volatility will likely increase consistent with historical trends, although it’s interesting […]

In the most recent Federal Reserve interest rate setting meeting and accompanying press conference, the Fed sent some subtle signals and ambiguities. First, the Fed continues to believe that the economy is on a growth path, with GDP projections matching their March projections. In fact, an examination of the trends for 2025 and 2026 reveals […]

The U.S. economy has shown remarkable resilience in the face of higher interest rates, with a combination of factors contributing to continued economic growth and a positive outlook for the stock market. One of the most significant factors supporting the U.S. economy is the unprecedented growth in investment income. According to the Commerce Department, Americans […]

The U.S. consumer has entered another soft patch. It’s a critical part of the cycle to allow the economy to cool, inflation to further decline, and helps restore a more neutral interest rate policy. The recent Q1 GDP report showed that U.S. economic growth moderated to 1.3% from 3.4% in Q4 2023 and is on […]

This past week I’ve heard from several of our clients. Realize we serve over 18,000 employees in 401(k) plans and thousands of individuals. Our data set is pretty broad, and I get a good feel for what they are thinking. There seems to be an anxious mood of late. Their businesses and jobs are going […]

We’ve spent so much time talking about inflation and interest rates over the course of the year that it’s easy to lose sight of other factors influencing markets. Let’s step away from the inflation narrative and look at a long-term trend impacting equity prices: The supply and demand of shares. The ever-shrinking supply of stock […]

The economy is definitely slowing. Last week’s blog reviewed the weakness in the labor market. Recent data suggests some consumer weakness is gathering steam. Consumer credit expanded well below expectations in March and revolving credit (credit card debt) expanded at the slowest pace since the pandemic. 1 I am convinced this is no coincidence. We […]

U.S. companies are finishing Q1 2024 earnings season on a strong note. So far, 80% of S&P 500 companies have announced earnings and they have exceeded expectations. If the 5% growth rate holds, this would be the highest earnings growth rate since Q2 2022 as per FactSet. 1 Simultaneous to great corporate earnings, the jobs […]

It’s becoming abundantly clear to me that the Federal Reserve might just have to pick the economic loser in this interest rate cycle. Picking winners and losers is dangerous business when it comes to public policy but that’s the game. When it comes to the Fed picking winners and losers, it can be disastrous. Let […]

Not since October 2023 has the S&P 500 had a 5% pullback. That all ended last week with the S&P 500 down 5.33% from its record-setting peak on March 29th. 1 It’s been that long since I reminded our investor clients that adjustments, pullbacks, drawdowns, and corrections happen. Not only do they happen; they occur […]