Weekly Commentary

As we step into Q2 2025, the economic landscape is shaped by a myriad of factors. Our latest Q2 2025 Look Ahead report dives deep into the nuanced interplay between consumer sentiment, policy uncertainty, and the potential for interest rate cuts.  1.  Consumer Sentiment vs. Economic Reality Although consumer sentiment surveys show a significant downturn, the […]

Sentiment has turned decidedly sour. The recent survey on consumer attitudes by the University of Michigan points to this marked decline.1 Inflation concerns, along with the headline uncertainty around tariffs, are to blame. Tariffs are a form of sales tax and that has certainly fed into the inflation fear.  In fact, inflation expectations at the […]

It’s hard to keep track of the multiple narratives driving our economy and equity markets right now. Let me see if I can reduce the noise and clarify what should be the main focal points. First, the most recent survey from the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment showed a continued drop in consumer attitudes. […]

The wall of worry investors are facing continues to expand, and as we wrote last week, the policy volatility is not alleviating any tension.  However, much of the worry is still noise.  For example, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPnow forecast suggests we are in a recession in Q1.  But much of that was predicated on the […]

As discussed in last week’s post, the Friday charts on inflation told us a lot about the direction of interest rates and the economy. Fortunately, according to the Federal Reserve’s favored indicator (PCE), inflation is back to trending favorably. 1 Across almost all categories, inflation on a year-over-year basis is going in the right direction […]

This week, all eyes are on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, with the January 2025 data set to drop on Friday, February 28th. As of today, economists and market watchers are buzzing with expectations – and for good reason. Inflation trends shape Fed policy, stock valuations, bond yields, […]

I often have to catch myself when things look a little grey on the macro picture. We’ve had a spate of economic releases and earnings expectations that suggest maybe things are slowing, or at least not as rosy as we would like. Retail sales were weaker than anticipated in January, with almost every sector showing […]

As we enter another busy week of economic brinkmanship with tariffs, tax proposals, and spending cuts, it might be time to frame the mathematical challenge. The Federal Government is spending about $1.9 trillion more than they take in. 1 At 6.1% of GDP, this deficit stands at an all-time record high – nearly double the […]

This weekend, President Trump announced broad-reaching tariffs against Canada, Mexico, and China. The measures include a 25% tariff on almost all goods from Canada (excluding energy resources) and Mexico, along with an additional 10% tariff on goods from China. Canada has already announced retaliatory measures, and Mexico indicated they will make an announcement soon. Here’s […]

Despite this morning’s market turbulence sparked by Chinese startup DeepSeek’s low-cost AI model challenging tech valuations, the latest wave of Q4 earnings reports has injected fresh optimism into market sentiment, particularly following upbeat results from major financial institutions in the first two weeks of reporting. Of the S&P 500 companies that have reported at this […]