Weekly Commentary

The S&P 500 touched another record high last week, marking the 45th time it has set a record this year. Last week’s blog covered the topic of extreme pessimism. Really smart people can be seduced into pessimistic thinking even when the only logical reaction should be long-term optimism. But investing is frequently counterintuitive. 1 I’m […]

The world is grappling with a series of challenges: Escalating wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, a cataclysmic hurricane in the Southeast, and the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming Presidential election. For investors, it feels like scaling a wall of worry. While pessimism currently dominates public sentiment, a logical long-term perspective suggests optimism is warranted. […]

Equity markets maintained their upward momentum in the third quarter. For the first time in several quarters, large cap core outperformed growth. As interest rates began to decrease, we witnessed a tech sector recovery late in the quarter. This rate reduction also boosted bond market performance, particularly for longer-duration bonds. The Chinese government’s substantial fiscal […]

The Federal Reserve’s much-anticipated interest rate cut materialized last week. The Fed slashed rates by 50 basis points (bps) and signaled more reductions on the horizon. The Federal Reserve Board’s rate-setting committee provided some forward guidance: an additional 50 bps cut this year, followed by 100 bps next year, and 50 bps in 2026. 1 […]

This week the Federal Reserve will almost certainly cut interest rates. In fact, current market expectations suggest a 39% probability of a 25 basis point cut and a 61% chance of a more substantial 50 basis point reduction. But is this good news for investors? 1 I, among so many others, want to believe that […]

In the world of interest rates, things have finally returned to normal. Short-term rates are now lower than long-term rates and that seems right. Investors should get compensated more for longer duration bonds compared to shorter duration bonds. The yield curve began to invert in early 2022, driven largely by the Federal Reserve’s swift rate […]

As the U.S. economy creeps towards a round of rate cuts, I think it’s important to take a step back and look at what is going to happen to all the money on the sidelines. Right now, money markets are sitting on a record $6 trillion. 1 The allure of higher yields on cash has […]

We’ve had an eventful few weeks of economic data that has led to a significant shift in interest rate policy, with the Federal Reserve Chair announcing a decisive move to lower rates. Here is a summary of what he said in his recent speech. 1 On Interest Rates: “The time has come for policy to […]

The nonstop nagging question of the last couple of years has been, “When will inflation abate?” I was certainly in the transitory camp, expecting inflation to subside much earlier than it did. However – and I say this cautiously – we may finally be witnessing the long-awaited moderation in inflation. While Americans might not feel […]

Market performance last week was the most consequential in years and at the same time it was like nothing occurred. If you went on a media vacation for the week, you would have hardly noticed any change in the major indexes. The S&P 500 had a precipitous drop on Monday yet churned higher during the […]