Weekly Commentary

Talk of inflation is a constant and, frankly, an ongoing threat to sustained consumption. That narrative hardly changed last week and, most definitely, was exacerbated by the Iranian attack on Israel. It’s pretty clear from all the advanced warnings by the Iranians and successful missile interventions by the Americans and other Middle Eastern countries that […]

The labor market continues to exhibit amazing strength and resilience. The U.S. economy added 300,000+ jobs in March and, historically, that would suggest continued inflationary pressures. 1 One might even conclude interest rates are a long way from being cut due to such a strong jobs market. Historically, wages spike in order for companies to […]

Equity markets rose in the first quarter, with the S&P 500 gaining more than 10%. Inflationary pressures eased only modestly in the quarter leaving investors guessing on interest rates. That provided a slight drag on fixed income in the quarter. 1 Take a look at how we see the coming quarter by clicking on this […]

The exclamation/question mark combo (interrobang) in the title is not a typo. It’s a reflection of my view on what the Federal Reserve Chairman said last week during his press conference. He made a statement that seemed like a question to me. Of course, all of this still pertains to interest rates and the timing […]

It’s hard to imagine why Americans seem so miserable – record real wage growth, all-time highs in the stock market, home price appreciation, record low unemployment, and moderating inflation. Why President Biden and the current political class are in any trouble at all is a head-scratcher. A recent survey by Goldman Sachs suggests that inflation […]

While the ebbs and flows of the news cycle might have investors on edge for an impending crash, those watching corporate earnings might have a different view. Corporate earnings results for the final quarter of 2023 signaled continued corporate strength. Earnings growth was over 4%, compared with expectations for a 1.5% rise on December 31st. […]

With the S&P 500 up 43.61% off the low set in 2022 and trading at all-time highs, the question I get asked the most is are we in a bubble? 1 The straight answer is I don’t know, and no one else does either. Sure, there will be a pundit who jumps on TV and […]

2024 was always going to be the year of the interest rate. Coming into the year we knew of the large discrepancy between what the Fed was forecasting for rate cuts and what Wall Street believed was the making of market risk. 1 The discrepancy is in the shaded area. Today that picture looks entirely […]

Last week’s economic data threw a splash of cold water on the U.S. inflation debate and interest rate picture. Both headline Producer Prices (PPI) and Consumer Prices (CPI) rose more than expected. On the producer side, both food and energy prices are actually dropping, with services inflation driving most of the re-inflation. 1 On the consumer […]

The S&P 500 hit a historic high, crossing over the 5,000 level, last week. It begs the question; are valuations overextended in U.S. Large Cap equities? By most measures, the answer is a resounding yes. It’s an answer most in asset management dread as it requires some tough decision-making. 1 Do you try and time […]