Weekly Commentary

The January Jobs Report was released on Friday and the headline number put an end to the March Fed interest rate cut, as the U.S. economy added 355k jobs – much stronger than expectations. 1 Oddly enough, we had the same type of jobs surprise in January of 2023. There is certainly something lurking under […]

In the last quarter of 2023, the US economy had the perfect landing as the overall economy grew at a 3.3% rate with hardly a blemish. The consumer continues to drive our prosperity, ultimately dictating corporate earnings growth. 1 Simultaneously, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), continued to moderate. It’s now […]

This Friday we will get another report on U.S. Personal Income, and I suspect it will continue to show real wage growth – that’s wages growing at a faster pace than inflation. This has been a trend for almost a year. 1 This one data point is really the key driver to ongoing consumption and […]

We continue to focus on inflation as a primary driver for macro allocation. Inflation is going to determine interest rates and interest rates almost always impact the future value of investments like stocks, bonds, and real estate. Recent consumer price data continues to point to lower inflation, albeit with a few bumps along the way. […]

The recent jobs report supports the ongoing narrative that the economy is on a “soft landing” trajectory. The U.S. economy added 216,000 jobs in December, while the 3-month average continues to trend downward. It’s almost the perfect scenario for a “soft landing.” 1 Much of the gains are coming in Health Care and Government. Not […]

Equity markets rose in the fourth quarter, with the S&P 500 gaining more than 24% for the full year as investors have been navigating a steadily growing U.S. economy and an end to the Fed’s rate hiking cycle. 1 Take a look at how we see the coming quarter by clicking on this link to […]

Just before the Christmas holiday consumer prices, as reported by the Federal Reserve’s favorite measure Core PCE, came in deflationary for the first time since April 2020. That’s right…prices actually dropped in November (ex-food and energy). 1 On a year-over-year basis, inflation is rapidly moving back toward the Fed’s 2% target. 2 When you blend […]

In a consequential week of economic reports, the Federal Reserve signaled an end to the rate hike cycle we’ve been in for over a year. While Fed Chair Powell didn’t explicitly say rate cuts were guaranteed, the nuance was pretty clear. According to the those that participate in setting interest rate policy, the consensus says […]

The Federal Reserve is going to be meeting this week and will likely confirm their pause in raising rates. So far, the Fed has orchestrated a perfect economic soft landing, if you want to give them credit for that. The latest consumer price report (PCE) solidified the continuing moderation trend in prices. Inflation is moving […]

The macro noise is deafening. So how is it possible we just finished one of the best months equity markets have seen in a long time? The S&P 500 was up almost 9% in November and a balanced portfolio of stocks and bonds had their best month in 30 years, up 7.3%. 1 The first […]