Weekly Commentary

Typically, under ordinary circumstances, bond investors expect to get paid more for holding a long-term bond than a short-term bond, as more uncertainty in the future deserves to be compensated. This is what a normal yield curve looks like. 1 Over the last 15 months the yield curve has been inverted, meaning investors were paid […]

Are we at the doorstep of a disinflation or deflationary period? The latest report on core Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) would suggest not. Excluding food and energy, prices rose 4.1% year-over-year in September. 1 Further, core services prices, excluding housing, continue to inflate. 2 Keep in mind, services consumption (things like transportation, medical care, and […]

Phillips & Company is privileged to service thousands of investors, from foundations and family offices to CEOs and those trying to save for retirement. We also get to interview capital allocators and asset managers around the world. This combination gives us what I believe is great insight into what the supply of money is doing […]

Equity markets declined in the third quarter after the strong market rally seen in the first half of the year. 1 Take a look at how we see the coming quarter by clicking on this link to our Q4 2023 Look Ahead. After a prolonged period of rate increases, the U.S. consumer is starting to […]

In his recent comments, Fed Chairman Powell messaged more uncertainty around the continued rate increase cycle. He covered the usual list of things working for and against the U.S. economy. You can read all the ebbs and flows of the economy in any one of our earlier blogs. Skipping ahead to the conclusion, we need […]

In a recent post, Are We Lost, I explored the headwinds that might impact economic growth in the coming quarter; auto workers strike, government shutdown and student loan payments recommencing. We’ve had the first hit, with the latest labor strike by the United Auto Workers. It might feel like we are coming apart at the […]

Phillips & Company has the privilege of advising thousands of clients from all walks of life and economic backgrounds with varying goals and objectives. All are impacted by rising interest rates, even those that have low to no debt. That’s why we field the same question frequently: “When will we have rate cuts?” I would […]

When do we know if and when the so-called economic soft landing starts turning into a hard landing recession? We’ve called for a soft landing for over a year and that was not part of the consensus at that time. Now that we are in what would appear to be a soft landing scenario, the […]

Jerome Powell, the Chair of the Federal Reserve, gave a policy speech from Jackson Hole, Wyoming on Friday. It’s traditionally a wonky time for economists and those that follow the Fed. Without dissecting all his pros and cons as it relates to inflation and the future of interest rates, I’d focus on just one statement […]

China is in an economic air pocket with the associated turbulence. The property market, which makes up over 60% of the wealth of the Chinese consumer, is in a deflationary spiral. Property prices in key markets have been dropping. 1 Wages have flattened, with income increases matching income decreases. 2 Inflation in China is non-existent […]