Weekly Commentary

After one of the longest lasting bear markets in history, the S&P 500 closed up 20% off its 10/12/2022 low on Friday to kick off the official start of another bull market. If history is any guide there is more positive market action to come, according to our research friends at Bespoke Investment Group. 1 […]

It might be easy to get distracted by the above expectations Jobs Report on Friday. After all, it could and should signal more interest rate hikes ahead by the Fed. However, the real story might be the unintended consequences of the unlimited debt ceiling passed by Congress and signed by the President. The “down to […]

It would appear the cataclysmic “debt ceiling” debate could be in our rear-view mirror. However, never underestimate the ability of Congress to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. I’m not suggesting higher debt and borrowing are good for our economy, but not paying our debt is 100% bad for America. While Congress is cutting […]

“Knowing how to see” The negativity in the United States is palpable. I make a point of traveling often for the purpose of seeing what’s going on in our economy. Since most of our economy is driven by consumption it’s not too difficult to get a bird’s-eye view of what’s really happening. When you look […]

Inflation is finally abating according to last week’s Consumer Price Inflation report. Headline inflation came down to 4.9%, the 10th consecutive monthly decline. Is it too soon to use the word transitory again? 1 On a percentage change basis, it’s one of the more rapid drops since 1945. 2 Confirming the long-anticipated reduction in inflationary […]

After one of the most rapid and extreme increases in interest rates in history, I believe the Fed is about to signal a pivot to a pause. I’ll lay out the case and conclude with the Fed’s comments. 1 In light of the strength in the recent jobs report, one might wonder if the Fed […]

Notwithstanding another bank failure (First Republic Bank) the reports of the impending demise of the U.S. economy are still over exaggerated. The possibility of a soft landing or a modest growth recession is still in the mix. Mixed Bag #1 Yes, U.S. GDP growth came it at a much-reduced rate of 1.1% for Q1. Estimates […]

It’s been a long, quiet period between earnings reports and that silence has provided the backdrop for a host of other topics to reign supreme. However, corporate earnings reports will start flooding in this week and by the end of next week we should have a pretty good picture of the earnings environment for Q1. […]

Bank failures, ground wars in Europe, inflation, rising interest rates, and the impending doom of a recession. It’s enough to make any investor want to run for cover. This is the time where you, as an investor, and us, as your guide, tend to find friction in our relationship. Client View:If you know there is […]

The gap between the Fed’s interest rate trajectory and what investors believe is still fairly wide. 1 However, recent macroeconomic data may have moved investors and the Fed a bit closer together. The 236,000 jobs added to the U.S. economy in March provided some relief to the inflationary pressures the Fed is hyper-vigilant about. The […]