Weekly Commentary

Q1 ended with reasonably strong equity performance across various indexes. 1 Take a look at how we see the coming quarter by clicking on this link to our Q2 2023 Look Ahead. While U.S. corporate earnings expectations are negative for Q2; equity performance, counterintuitively, can still be positive. 2 In fact, some of the best […]

Did the Federal Reserve, in their last meeting, call for a recession later this year? It was no surprise to us that the Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points last week. That’s the headline. Buried in the details were various Fed Governors’ predictions on inflation, employment, and interest rates. You can see all […]

Once again we need to fix our eyes around the corner from the recent banking turmoil. Last week we reviewed the fractional banking system. That was just the start to a deeper review. The real question I have been asking myself is what the second order effects of the recent banking turmoil are. Outcomes and […]

  By the time we publish this post the fallout from the failure of the 16th largest bank in America will certainly come into focus. Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB) is going to be the second largest bank to fail in American history. 1 While we have all been watching the “shiny object” called inflation; the […]

There’s only so much one can write about the ongoing battle between inflation, interest rates, and stock prices in the United States. The past several posts cover that topic with sufficient rigor. Perhaps I will pivot to the second largest economy in the world, China, and give them a little coverage. After all, they represent […]

Equity market volatility has spiked since the robust jobs report in January. Recall the U.S. economy added 517,000 jobs in January, kicking off the start of investor hope running into reality. 1 Since that announcement, we have had a Consumer Price Index reading reflecting inflation is not abating. 2 Last week we had the Personal […]

The latest readings on inflation and consumer spending confirmed one thing; the road back to a normalized inflationary and interest rate environment is going to be bumpy. Inflation posted a very modest reduction, and some would characterize it as “sticky.” It’s just not dropping fast enough for some market participants. On a month-over-month basis inflation […]

If a recession is coming consumers sure don’t know it. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index increased for the third consecutive month, the number came in at 66.4 in February, up from 64.9 in January. 1 Yet corporate earnings in the fourth quarter have been mixed, with both investors and companies focused on the […]

Wow! The U.S. economy added 517k jobs in January. This reversed a cooling trend and surprised everyone. 1 Oddly enough, wage growth continued to moderate in January in conjunction with the rapid expansion in employment. 2 The Fed has been on a warpath to cool the U.S. economy over the last year by raising rates […]

The recent release of U.S. GDP growth confirmed we are far from an economic recession. The U.S. grew at an impressive 2.9% in Q4. An inventory buildup and some modest help from the consumer are keeping the economy on a growth track. 1 Consumers contributed 1.42% to GDP growth, which on the surface could foretell […]