Weekly Commentary

In an effort to put a label on what is going on with credit markets, U.S. investors are in a quandary. The yield curve has steepened over the last 45 days. [i] The U.S. 7-year Treasury auction had an anemic showing on February 25th, with only 2 buyers for every dollar offered. That spiked the […]

There is an inflection point, of sorts, occurring in U.S. capital markets these days. It is abundantly clear that investors are facing a choice with respect to interest rates and equity returns. We anticipated much of this when we published our Q1 2021 Look Ahead. A period of time where interest rates might be rising […]

With equity markets hitting all-time highs, bitcoin touching all-time highs, and COVID-19 cases collapsing, the world would seem near perfect for investors. [i] [ii] [iii] Specifically, retail sales are clearly heating up in January and across several segments. It would appear the Trump stimulus is again hitting the mark precisely. [iv] Could it be possible […]

The most frequently asked question right now is, “Are we in a bubble?” The simple answer is, “I can’t tell.” It’s an entirely natural question and answers will vary based upon the strategy and motivations of the person you’re asking. [i] Here is what we know: Valuations are stretched across a variety of metrics. Extended […]

The most recent jobs report suggests the economic recovery is softening. Of course, that seems obvious since we have been in stuck in another “lockdown” phase. Most service sector jobs are in a deep freeze― especially in the travel, leisure, and hospitality industries. In total, we only added 49,000 jobs in January and that certainly […]

What should be an all-consuming week of rich data will likely be hijacked by another bout of pandemonium around the drama with GameStop and the Reddit message board. The week ahead is poised to be full of macro economic releases that could provide critical direction on the fragile state of our economy. Just look at […]

With so much liquidity floating within our economy, we should expect the current housing boom to continue. First, there is simply not enough supply in the current marketplace to meet expected demand. [i] New home listings are down 10% from last year and pending sales are up an astonishing 32%. [ii] The collision course of […]

Fourth quarter earnings season is beginning to ramp up, with consensus expecting S&P 500 companies to report a year-over-year earnings decline of -6.8% per FactSet. [i] While this would mark the fourth-largest decline since Q3 2009, we are entering a period of very easy year-over-year growth comparisons and there are a couple of kickers that […]

An economic or market blog is almost hard to scribe after the events that transpired last week in our nation’s capital. While market forces looked past the turmoil on Wednesday and, overall, rallied on hope of more fiscal stimulus; we would be remiss to not address some of the potential implications. [i] Sadly, we laid […]

We just published our Q1 2021 Look Ahead, you can view the presentation here or watch our narrated version here. Consumption & Investment Rocket FuelAs we’ve written here before, an economic recovery is going to be driven by consumption and the implementation of the COVID-19 vaccine. Consumer caution was a major theme in 2020 as […]