Weekly Commentary

Everyone is talking about inflation these days and the debate is consuming the minds of both the pundit and investor classes. Transitory or structural inflation is at the core of the debate. Headline CPI was reported last week at a whopping 5% on a year-over-year basis. [i] Remember, the Federal Reserve long-term inflation target is […]

Everyone is talking about inflation these days and the debate is consuming the minds of the pundit and investor classes. Transitory or structural inflation is at the core of the debate. Headline CPI was reported last week at a whopping 5% on a year-over-year basis. [i] Remember, the Federal Reserve long-term inflation target is 2%. […]

As I write this post, I am having breakfast at a hotel in California. I ordered eggs and was told they have no eggs and that it is very spotty when they come in. Are chickens not laying eggs due to COVID? I don’t think so. [i] Egg pickers, truck drivers, packaging plant workers, warehouse […]

Last week it was reported that U.S. GDP grew by 6.4% in Q1, primarily attributable to the boost delivered by new stimulus injections during the quarter. [i] [ii] The predominant driver was consumer spending which grew 11.3% and contributed 7.4 percentage points to GDP, again driven by stimulus injections. Between the massive government support and […]

This week we will host Jude Blanchette from the Center for Strategic International Studies to discuss China and the United States. CSIS is a globally relevant, nonpartisan think tank ranking amongst the best in Washington. CSIS is a clear leader in advising companies and U.S. policymakers on international relations and trade issues. Jude has a […]

The “get back to work” wage is becoming a crisis in almost every state. Our evaluation suggested it would take approximately $19.35 per hour to get people back to work based upon all of the state and federal unemployment payments being provided. [i] As of this morning, it appears at least 19 states have now […]

Just about everywhere in the United States, visible examples of the mismatch between supply and demand are occurring in our economy. Everyone has likely experienced the supply/demand curve shifting—it is almost daily when it comes to the supply of labor and demand for goods and services. Hotel rooms are in hot demand, yet there is […]

It would appear all systems are “go” with a great economic recovery for America. It’s hard to believe but, the Biden and Trump administrations bought themselves an economy. Personal income exploded higher by 21% in March, the highest in over 60 years. [i] This is almost entirely driven by transfer payments from the U.S. government […]

The Biden administration’s tax plan is finally coming into clarity after nearly 100 days in office. Just to level set this post, his tax plan had been widely distributed during his campaign. Generally speaking, it should come as no surprise that taxes are going to go up. Here were President Biden’s campaign proposals: [i] Last […]

It’s a rare occasion when we as investors get to experience in real time why markets have always gone up over long periods of time. [i] With over 30 years as a professional investor on behalf of myself and others, I wish I knew at day one what I know today. When investing in stocks: […]