Weekly Commentary

We finally had our first tariff off-ramp. Last week, the Trump administration announced a trade deal with the United Kingdom. It reflected deep economic alignment, strategic trust, and a shared framework of market capitalism. It was also because the trade difference between the two countries is so minuscule it could hardly matter. 1 Many have asked […]

Over the last nine consecutive days, the S&P 500 has recovered all its losses since the April 2nd launch of the Trump trade war. This is the longest S&P 500 winning streak in the last 20 years.1 The historic rally occurred even considering a mix of economic headlines. The US economy contracted 0.3% in Q1 […]

The recent drumbeat for a US recession is mounting and will dominate the news cycle this week. With US economic growth (GDP) releasing on Wednesday, economists will likely increase their probabilities for a recession. According to Bloomberg, forecasters now see a 45% chance of a recession up from a 30% chance in April.1 The Federal […]

The US Consumer once again contradicted their self-reported dour mood and continued to spend in March. Retail sales were up 4.6% year over year. Some of this was a pull forward in consumption driven by the tariffs on autos, although almost every segment saw increases in consumption.1 Consumers are saying they’re concerned but clearly keep […]

Consumer confidence took another perilous drop in last week’s Consumer Sentiment Index from the University of Michigan.  This decline represents a multi-month drop in the consumer’s attitude.  In fact, consumer sentiment has been down over 30% since December 2024 and is hitting historic lows, almost certainly driven by trade war/tariff uncertainty and the threat of […]

  It certainly looks like that will be the case with the current Trump tariffs.  The formula used was an oddity and caught many off guard.  The division by two is driven by the Administration wanting to be “reasonable” according to President Trump.  In any case, this formula was much more about past trade injustices […]

As we step into Q2 2025, the economic landscape is shaped by a myriad of factors. Our latest Q2 2025 Look Ahead report dives deep into the nuanced interplay between consumer sentiment, policy uncertainty, and the potential for interest rate cuts.  1.  Consumer Sentiment vs. Economic Reality Although consumer sentiment surveys show a significant downturn, the […]

Sentiment has turned decidedly sour. The recent survey on consumer attitudes by the University of Michigan points to this marked decline.1 Inflation concerns, along with the headline uncertainty around tariffs, are to blame. Tariffs are a form of sales tax and that has certainly fed into the inflation fear.  In fact, inflation expectations at the […]

It’s hard to keep track of the multiple narratives driving our economy and equity markets right now. Let me see if I can reduce the noise and clarify what should be the main focal points. First, the most recent survey from the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment showed a continued drop in consumer attitudes. […]

The wall of worry investors are facing continues to expand, and as we wrote last week, the policy volatility is not alleviating any tension.  However, much of the worry is still noise.  For example, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPnow forecast suggests we are in a recession in Q1.  But much of that was predicated on the […]