Weekly Commentary

As we continue to thaw from the worst economic freeze in the history of our country, it is easy to get caught up in the sheer magnitude of our losses. With close to 40 million jobs lost since February, it is hard to envision any reasonable way back. [i]       When we dissect […]

  Fear is a pervasive feeling that consumes our minds these days. It’s no wonder that we are experiencing fear: Unemployment is over 14% [i] Over 23 million people are currently out of work in America [ii] 40 million people are in need of basic food from SNAP (food stamps) [iii] Retail sales have fallen […]

  2020 looks to be a complete bust and investors know it. I’ve had the chance to review over half a dozen conference calls on macroeconomic outlooks and corporate earnings and the story across the globe is the same: 2020 GDP growth will be negative in most countries, except for China 2020 corporate earnings are […]

  Now that Q1 GDP has been reported with a decline of 4.8%, it is time to move on to the really bad expectations. GDP for Q2 is anticipated to come in at -37.9% making the recession official. Of course, we won’t see this data until mid-July after the quarter ends but, we all know […]

It may be premature to think about inflation or deflation. However, it is critical that we look around the corner to support what we do today. Remember, as an investor you only own future cashflows, not past ones. I can’t tell you how many times during the Great Financial Crisis (2008-2009) experts predicted runaway inflation. […]

  While the governing class debates the merits of opening the economy, it is clear there has been one “return to normal” paradigm: The political class is clearly posturing to again lay blame and claim some political victory. That’s just a sideshow for investors and, frankly, upcoming earnings reports might also be a sideshow. In […]

  If you’ve read this blog in the past, you know we always evoke a few key themes; one of which being that markets move in brief bursts. If you miss just a few key days over a long period of time you lose all your advantage. [i] Last week was a perfect example, as […]

  We just published our Q2 Look Ahead—a 17-minute look forward with a lot of charts. Perhaps too many charts. I suspect you might have some time on your hands and, therefore, additional content was provided. You can watch a video of it by clicking here or just view the presentation by clicking here. If […]

    If you have questions or comments, please let us know. You can contact us via Twitter and Facebook, or you can e-mail Tim directly. For additional information, please visit our website.   Tim Phillips, CEO, Phillips & Company     Sources: i.            https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2020/03/weekly-initial-unemployment-claims_26.html ii.            https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/SPX:IND iii.            https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/03/26/senate-stimulus-bill-coronavirus-2-trillion-list-what-is-in-it/ iv.            https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/20/goldman-sees-an-unprecedented-stop-of-economic-activity-with-2nd-quarter-gdp-contracting-by-24percent.html v.            https://blogs.wsj.com/dailyshot/ vi.            http://covid19.healthdata.org/ vii.            […]

At the time of this writing, a full 25% of Americans have been ordered to stay at home in an effort to contain the spread of COVID-19. [i]     By the time this blog is published, we may very well wake up to a Monday in America that has our entire nation shut down […]